LACChargers
5-10
9
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
41°F
6 mph
16
DENBroncos
7-8
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
41°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
3
3
3
9
Broncos
3
10
0
3
16
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
313
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
4.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.04
Passing Yards
215
212
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.15
Rushing Yards
86
101
Rush Attempts
24
33
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.41
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
18%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.18
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-12
Sack EPA
-1.40
-3.31
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
48
49
Penalty EPA
-5.83
-5.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+41.2
Base HFA
+45.9
Divisional Adj
-20.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+30.3
Home QB Adjustment
-52.1
Away QB Adjustment
-82.4
Market Regression
+3.0
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
E. Stick
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-82.4
Value
Ptile
J. Stidham
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-52.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
27
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
17
14
Rushing Yards / Game
24
30
EPA
EPA / Play
22
24
EPA / Pass
18
26
EPA / Rush
31
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
3
19
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
16
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
2
4th Down Efficiency
23
10
RZ Efficiency
13
21
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
23
Yards / Game
26
28
Passing Yards / Game
13
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
16
EPA
EPA / Play
20
20
EPA / Pass
20
24
EPA / Rush
19
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
12
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
15
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
15
4th Down Efficiency
4
28
RZ Efficiency
19
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U