LACChargers
10-7
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
41°F
17 mph
24
DENBroncos
13-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
41°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
0
0
17
17
Broncos
7
7
3
7
24
Spread
+8
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
259
363
Total Plays
49
70
Yards / Play
5.3
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.11
Passing Yards
194
--
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.14
Rushing Yards
65
133
Rush Attempts
18
34
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
26
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.88
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-6.08
--
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
63
50
Penalty EPA
-7.82
-5.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model79.7%
Spread Pick
Broncos-8.0
Expected Value
+17.4%
Cover Probability
60.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+273
Home nfelo
1,727
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.8
Home QB Adjustment
+27.8
Away QB Adjustment
+11.0
Market Regression
+2.4
Final Difference
237.2
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+27.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
8
18
Passing Yards / Game
2
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5
EPA
EPA / Play
2
23
EPA / Pass
2
23
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
32
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
7
8
Turnover EPA / Game
27
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
4
RZ Efficiency
21
25
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
9
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
30
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
19
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
7
24
Fumbles / Game
25
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U