nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ browns week 6, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

LAC logo
LACChargers
3-2
38
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
51°F
9 mph
14
CLEBrowns
2-2
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
51°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
14
14
3
38
Browns
0
6
0
8
14

Spread

LAC logo
+1

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
449
319
Total Plays
58
73
Yards / Play
7.7
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.31
Passing Yards
203
216
Comp/Att
12/21(57%)
22/47(47%)
Yards / Pass
9.7
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.47
Rushing Yards
246
103
Rush Attempts
36
21
Yards / Rush
6.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
15
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
11%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.76
-11.46
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-12
-24
Sack EPA
-1.87
-7.90
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
72
53
Penalty EPA
-7.93
+0.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model46.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-57
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+88.6
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.9
Net QB Adjustment
-8.5
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
+21.2
Market Regression
-0.1
Final Difference
-24.6
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
Value
Ptile
12/03
4.9
84
12/10
3.0
74
12/16
-7.3
11
12/24
1.5
63
12/31
10.5
98
09/09
8.4
92
09/16
6.3
86
09/23
2.5
67
09/30
1.2
55
10/07
6.4
87
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Value
Ptile
09/30
-3.5
25
10/07
-0.6
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Browns Defense
Chargers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
6
21
Yards / Game
13
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
31
Rushing Yards / Game
18
28

EPA

EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
3
9
EPA / Rush
9
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
18
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
7
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
27
RZ Efficiency
9
19
Browns Offense vs Chargers Defense
Browns logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
11
Yards / Game
11
10
Passing Yards / Game
30
8
Rushing Yards / Game
13
10

EPA

EPA / Play
24
9
EPA / Pass
23
8
EPA / Rush
14
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
26
18
Fumbles / Game
9
7
Turnover EPA / Game
14
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
19
4th Down Efficiency
29
23
RZ Efficiency
5
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
9
W
L
U
12/10
17
W
W
U
12/16
-17
L
L
U
12/24
7
W
L
U
12/31
20
W
W
U
09/09
-10
L
L
O
09/16
11
W
W
O
09/23
-12
L
L
O
09/30
2
W
L
O
10/07
16
W
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

2-7-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-9
L
W
U
12/10
-6
L
L
O
12/17
-17
L
L
U
12/24
-17
L
L
U
12/31
-4
L
W
O
09/09
0
T
W
O
09/16
-3
L
W
U
09/20
4
W
W
U
09/30
-3
L
L
O
10/07
3
W
W
U