LACChargers
3-2
38
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
51°F
9 mph
14
CLEBrowns
2-2
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
51°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
14
14
3
38
Browns
0
6
0
8
14
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
319
Total Plays
58
73
Yards / Play
7.7
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.31
Passing Yards
203
216
Comp/Att
12/21(57%)
22/47(47%)
Yards / Pass
9.7
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.47
Rushing Yards
246
103
Rush Attempts
36
21
Yards / Rush
6.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
15
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
11%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.76
-11.46
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-12
-24
Sack EPA
-1.87
-7.90
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
72
53
Penalty EPA
-7.93
+0.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model46.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-54
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
+87.5
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.6
Net QB Adjustment
-8.5
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
+21.2
Market Regression
-5.2
Final Difference
-21.2
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
21
Yards / Game
13
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
31
Rushing Yards / Game
18
28
EPA
EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
3
9
EPA / Rush
9
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
18
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
7
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
27
RZ Efficiency
9
19
Browns Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
11
Yards / Game
11
10
Passing Yards / Game
30
8
Rushing Yards / Game
13
10
EPA
EPA / Play
24
9
EPA / Pass
23
8
EPA / Rush
14
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
26
18
Fumbles / Game
9
7
Turnover EPA / Game
14
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
19
4th Down Efficiency
29
23
RZ Efficiency
5
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
2-7-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U