LACChargers
4-3
27
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
57°F
10 mph
10
CLEBrowns
2-6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
57°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
13
0
7
27
Browns
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
292
Total Plays
56
76
Yards / Play
6.1
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.34
Passing Yards
246
213
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.46
Rushing Yards
96
79
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-15.05
Sacks
6
6
Sack Yards
-36
-22
Sack EPA
-5.96
-6.46
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
35
25
Penalty EPA
-2.98
-3.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model47.7%
Spread Pick
Browns+2.0
Expected Value
+0.9%
Cover Probability
51.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+81.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+23.1
Net QB Adjustment
+27.8
Home QB Adjustment
+23.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.6
Market Regression
-3.7
Final Difference
15.8
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+23.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
27
Yards / Game
20
18
Passing Yards / Game
16
10
Rushing Yards / Game
20
21
EPA
EPA / Play
13
9
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
19
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
2
Interceptions / Game
5
32
Fumbles / Game
3
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
13
3
RZ Efficiency
18
25
Browns Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
2
Yards / Game
28
11
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14
EPA
EPA / Play
32
4
EPA / Pass
32
4
EPA / Rush
22
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
14
Interceptions / Game
32
7
Fumbles / Game
17
13
Turnover EPA / Game
1
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
4
4th Down Efficiency
18
25
RZ Efficiency
27
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Browns
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U