LACChargers
5-9
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
13 mph
20
CLEBrowns
0-14
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
10
0
7
0
17
Browns
7
10
3
0
20
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
251
Total Plays
65
66
Yards / Play
5.5
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.03
Passing Yards
--
127
Comp/Att
23/46(50%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.16
Rushing Yards
34
124
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
1.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.40
--
Sacks
--
9
Sack Yards
--
-48
Sack EPA
--
-10.52
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
92
44
Penalty EPA
-10.18
-7.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-114
Home nfelo
1,277
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+88.3
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.9
Net QB Adjustment
+16.7
Home QB Adjustment
-3.8
Away QB Adjustment
-20.5
Market Regression
+12.1
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-20.5
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
30
Yards / Game
13
31
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30
EPA
EPA / Play
17
32
EPA / Pass
15
32
EPA / Rush
27
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
1
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
31
32
Turnover EPA / Game
2
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
30
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
23
29
Browns Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
29
Yards / Game
30
15
Passing Yards / Game
16
23
Rushing Yards / Game
18
12
EPA
EPA / Play
27
13
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
23
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
14
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
17
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
15
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Browns
0-10
SU
1-9
ATS
4-6
O/U