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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ browns week 16, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAC logo
LACChargers
5-9
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
13 mph
20
CLEBrowns
0-14
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
10
0
7
0
17
Browns
7
10
3
0
20

Spread

CLE logo
+5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
356
251
Total Plays
65
66
Yards / Play
5.5
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.03
Passing Yards
--
127
Comp/Att
23/46(50%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.16
Rushing Yards
34
124
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
1.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.40
--
Sacks
--
9
Sack Yards
--
-48
Sack EPA
--
-10.52
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
92
44
Penalty EPA
-10.18
-7.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-109
Home nfelo
1,279
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+89.5
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.3
Net QB Adjustment
+16.7
Home QB Adjustment
-3.8
Away QB Adjustment
-20.5
Market Regression
+11.1
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-20.5
Value
Ptile
10/09
4.3
81
10/13
-0.4
45
10/23
-1.7
36
10/30
-8.5
4
11/06
4.0
78
11/13
-5.3
14
11/27
3.9
77
12/04
-2.7
28
12/11
-9.2
4
12/18
-3.3
25
R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Value
Ptile
09/07
1.0
57
09/14
-4.6
22
11/02
-3.5
28
11/16
-6.0
15
11/23
-7.4
9
12/20
-3.1
29
12/28
1.0
56
09/11
-6.2
10
12/11
-7.4
7
12/18
-1.2
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Browns Defense
Chargers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
8
30
Yards / Game
13
31
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30

EPA

EPA / Play
17
32
EPA / Pass
15
32
EPA / Rush
27
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
1
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
31
32
Turnover EPA / Game
2
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
30
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
23
29
Browns Offense vs Chargers Defense
Browns logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
29
Yards / Game
30
15
Passing Yards / Game
16
23
Rushing Yards / Game
18
12

EPA

EPA / Play
27
13
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
23
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
14
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
17
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
15
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-3
L
W
O
10/13
8
W
W
U
10/23
3
W
W
O
10/30
-8
L
L
O
11/06
8
W
W
O
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/27
8
W
W
U
12/04
-7
L
L
P
12/11
-12
L
L
U
12/18
-3
L
L
U
CLE logo

Browns

0-10
SU
1-9
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-20
L
L
U
10/16
-2
L
W
O
10/23
-14
L
L
O
10/30
-3
L
L
O
11/06
-25
L
L
U
11/10
-21
L
L
U
11/20
-15
L
L
U
11/27
-14
L
L
U
12/11
-13
L
L
U
12/18
-20
L
L
O