LACChargers
7-6
13
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
53°F
9 mph
30
KCChiefs
7-6
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
53°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
6
7
0
13
Chiefs
3
7
10
10
30
Spread
0
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
307
397
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
5.1
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.18
Passing Yards
209
223
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
23/30(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.21
Rushing Yards
98
174
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
36%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.77
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-8
Sack EPA
-3.72
-1.35
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
61
71
Penalty EPA
-6.87
-1.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,565
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+55.7
Divisional Adj
-25.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-19.9
Net QB Adjustment
-14.4
Home QB Adjustment
+11.2
Away QB Adjustment
+25.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.5
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
15
Yards / Game
5
29
Passing Yards / Game
16
2
Rushing Yards / Game
24
28
EPA
EPA / Play
8
24
EPA / Pass
4
19
EPA / Rush
21
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
10
9
Fumbles / Game
1
21
Turnover EPA / Game
30
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
26
4th Down Efficiency
18
20
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
6
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
18
Rushing Yards / Game
10
31
EPA
EPA / Play
3
10
EPA / Pass
5
3
EPA / Rush
5
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
32
Interceptions / Game
3
5
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
19
4th Down Efficiency
29
5
RZ Efficiency
29
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U