LACChargers
1-1
22
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
026
INDColts
0-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
7
6
3
16
Colts
10
3
7
6
26
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
410
Total Plays
58
66
Yards / Play
6.1
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.04
Passing Yards
315
317
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.15
Rushing Yards
37
93
Rush Attempts
17
26
Yards / Rush
2.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
36%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-7.59
-17.43
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-14
Sack EPA
-6.35
-12.32
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
80
66
Penalty EPA
-12.67
-12.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+56.9
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-20.6
Net QB Adjustment
+1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+11.2
Away QB Adjustment
+9.4
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
21
Yards / Game
13
30
Passing Yards / Game
10
22
Rushing Yards / Game
26
25
EPA
EPA / Play
17
25
EPA / Pass
15
25
EPA / Rush
27
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
5
Interceptions / Game
31
29
Fumbles / Game
31
17
Turnover EPA / Game
2
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
23
4th Down Efficiency
14
8
RZ Efficiency
23
6
Colts Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
29
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
23
Rushing Yards / Game
24
12
EPA
EPA / Play
8
13
EPA / Pass
11
13
EPA / Rush
18
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
14
Interceptions / Game
18
1
Fumbles / Game
7
12
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
17
4th Down Efficiency
22
25
RZ Efficiency
3
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U