LACChargers
8-6
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
03
INDColts
4-9
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
10
3
7
20
Colts
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
314
174
Total Plays
67
50
Yards / Play
4.7
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.59
Passing Yards
213
105
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
3.6
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.85
Rushing Yards
101
69
Rush Attempts
32
14
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
10
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
44%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
8
--
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.77
-13.29
Sacks
4
7
Sack Yards
-22
-39
Sack EPA
-8.75
-9.95
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-4.90
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model61.1%
Spread Pick
Colts+3.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-28
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+19.1
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-22.1
Net QB Adjustment
+50.8
Home QB Adjustment
+35.3
Away QB Adjustment
-15.5
Market Regression
-32.6
Final Difference
-78.7
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-15.5
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+35.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
28
Yards / Game
8
15
Passing Yards / Game
5
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
20
EPA
EPA / Play
18
10
EPA / Pass
12
16
EPA / Rush
17
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
2
Interceptions / Game
6
24
Fumbles / Game
27
10
Turnover EPA / Game
29
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
17
RZ Efficiency
18
32
Colts Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
23
Yards / Game
27
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
7
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27
EPA
EPA / Play
32
14
EPA / Pass
30
9
EPA / Rush
30
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
16
Interceptions / Game
32
5
Fumbles / Game
32
27
Turnover EPA / Game
1
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
23
9
RZ Efficiency
29
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
0-0
SU
0-0
ATS
0-0
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
Colts
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U