nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ dolphins week 9, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

LAC logo
LACChargers
5-3
0
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
16 mph
37
MIADolphins
4-3
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
0
0
0
0
Dolphins
7
13
17
0
37

Spread

MIA logo
-3

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
178
441
Total Plays
49
74
Yards / Play
3.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.57
+0.15
Passing Yards
128
--
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.56
+0.49
Rushing Yards
50
132
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
10
28
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
27%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
7
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.11
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-8.34
--
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
57
--
Penalty EPA
-5.60
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,557
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+13.9
Away QB Adjustment
+18.6
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.6
Value
Ptile
01/05
0.5
53
01/12
0.1
51
09/08
0.8
55
09/14
8.7
93
09/21
5.0
82
09/28
8.5
93
10/05
2.5
68
10/12
5.8
84
10/19
-2.1
35
10/23
3.5
74
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.9
Value
Ptile
12/15
3.8
75
12/22
-12.5
1
12/29
-4.9
19
09/07
-2.3
34
09/14
-1.8
37
09/21
-5.5
17
09/28
5.9
85
10/12
3.2
72
10/19
6.1
87
10/26
-2.0
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
17
19
Yards / Game
19
11
Passing Yards / Game
8
11
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23

EPA

EPA / Play
12
19
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
27
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
23
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
15
13
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
14
10
Passing Yards / Game
17
1
Rushing Yards / Game
12
25

EPA

EPA / Play
13
23
EPA / Pass
16
21
EPA / Rush
15
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
16
Interceptions / Game
8
28
Fumbles / Game
15
6
Turnover EPA / Game
18
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
21
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
17
W
W
U
01/12
-7
L
W
U
09/08
-1
L
W
U
09/14
9
W
W
O
09/21
12
W
W
U
09/28
19
W
W
O
10/05
31
W
W
U
10/12
3
W
L
O
10/19
-3
L
L
U
10/23
-14
L
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
4
W
W
U
12/22
-19
L
L
U
12/29
-13
L
L
U
09/07
13
W
W
O
09/14
-19
L
L
U
09/21
-19
L
L
O
09/28
24
W
W
O
10/12
-3
L
L
O
10/19
13
W
W
U
10/26
14
W
W
U