LACChargers
5-3
0
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
16 mph
37
MIADolphins
4-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
0
0
0
0
Dolphins
7
13
17
0
37
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
178
441
Total Plays
49
74
Yards / Play
3.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.57
+0.15
Passing Yards
128
--
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.56
+0.49
Rushing Yards
50
132
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
28
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
27%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.11
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-8.34
--
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
57
--
Penalty EPA
-5.60
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+13.9
Away QB Adjustment
+18.6
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.6
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
19
Yards / Game
19
11
Passing Yards / Game
8
11
Rushing Yards / Game
30
23
EPA
EPA / Play
12
19
EPA / Pass
7
20
EPA / Rush
27
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
10
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
23
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
15
13
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
14
10
Passing Yards / Game
17
1
Rushing Yards / Game
12
25
EPA
EPA / Play
13
23
EPA / Pass
16
21
EPA / Rush
15
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
16
Interceptions / Game
8
28
Fumbles / Game
15
6
Turnover EPA / Game
18
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U