LACChargers
2-4
33
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
030
ATLFalcons
4-2
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
7
10
3
10
3
33
Falcons
6
15
0
3
0
24
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
426
386
Total Plays
75
63
Yards / Play
5.7
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.05
Passing Yards
348
256
Comp/Att
27/45(60%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.10
Rushing Yards
78
130
Rush Attempts
26
26
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
21
Passing 1st downs
19
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
56%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.82
-3.84
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-23
-17
Sack EPA
-9.96
-4.19
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
--
70
Penalty EPA
--
-6.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model68.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+164
Home nfelo
1,573
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+67.7
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+14.4
Home QB Adjustment
+22.5
Away QB Adjustment
+8.1
Market Regression
-23.5
Final Difference
132.1
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
13
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
31
Rushing Yards / Game
26
17
EPA
EPA / Play
17
24
EPA / Pass
15
22
EPA / Rush
27
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
11
Interceptions / Game
31
17
Fumbles / Game
31
15
Turnover EPA / Game
2
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
25
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
23
32
Falcons Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
29
Yards / Game
2
15
Passing Yards / Game
2
23
Rushing Yards / Game
5
12
EPA
EPA / Play
1
13
EPA / Pass
1
13
EPA / Rush
4
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
3
1
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
9
25
RZ Efficiency
9
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U