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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ falcons week 7, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
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LAC logo
LACChargers
2-4
33
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
30
ATLFalcons
4-2
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
7
10
3
10
3
33
Falcons
6
15
0
3
0
24

Spread

LAC logo
+5

Total

OVER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
426
386
Total Plays
75
63
Yards / Play
5.7
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.05
Passing Yards
348
256
Comp/Att
27/45(60%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.10
Rushing Yards
78
130
Rush Attempts
26
26
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
26
21
Passing 1st downs
19
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
56%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.82
-3.84
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-23
-17
Sack EPA
-9.96
-4.19
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
--
70
Penalty EPA
--
-6.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model68.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+168
Home nfelo
1,575
Away nfelo
1,489
Home Field
+67.7
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+14.4
Home QB Adjustment
+22.5
Away QB Adjustment
+8.1
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
132.8
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Value
Ptile
12/13
-5.8
12
12/20
2.9
72
12/24
2.5
68
01/03
-1.3
41
09/11
3.9
77
09/18
3.6
75
09/25
1.7
62
10/02
-0.3
46
10/09
4.3
81
10/13
-0.4
45
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.5
Value
Ptile
12/13
-3.5
25
12/20
-2.3
34
12/27
3.8
78
01/03
1.6
63
09/11
4.1
79
09/18
8.1
93
09/26
1.6
60
10/02
12.5
99
10/09
0.7
55
10/16
3.4
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Chargers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
13
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
31
Rushing Yards / Game
26
17

EPA

EPA / Play
17
24
EPA / Pass
15
22
EPA / Rush
27
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
11
Interceptions / Game
31
17
Fumbles / Game
31
15
Turnover EPA / Game
2
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
25
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
23
32
Falcons Offense vs Chargers Defense
Falcons logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
29
Yards / Game
2
15
Passing Yards / Game
2
23
Rushing Yards / Game
5
12

EPA

EPA / Play
1
13
EPA / Pass
1
13
EPA / Rush
4
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
3
1
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
9
25
RZ Efficiency
9
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

3-7
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-7
L
W
U
12/20
16
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
W
U
01/03
-7
L
W
O
09/11
-6
L
W
O
09/18
24
W
W
O
09/25
-4
L
L
U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
10/09
-3
L
W
O
10/13
8
W
W
U
ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-38
L
L
U
12/20
6
W
W
U
12/27
7
W
W
U
01/03
-3
L
L
U
09/11
-7
L
L
O
09/18
7
W
W
O
09/26
13
W
W
O
10/02
15
W
W
O
10/09
7
W
W
U
10/16
-2
L
W
O