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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ giants week 5, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
0-4
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
76°F
7 mph
22
NYGGiants
0-4
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
76°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
10
7
10
27
Giants
7
0
7
6
20

Spread

LAC logo
+3

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
382
335
Total Plays
73
67
Yards / Play
5.2
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.15
Passing Yards
--
183
Comp/Att
21/44(48%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.26
Rushing Yards
124
152
Rush Attempts
29
25
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.1
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
15
Red Zone %
40%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
--
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.77
-5.07
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-42
Sack EPA
--
-13.64
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
87
67
Penalty EPA
-9.93
-7.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.5%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+109.5
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+31.2
Net QB Adjustment
+9.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.3
Market Regression
-11.5
Final Difference
113.3
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
Value
Ptile
11/27
3.9
77
12/04
-2.7
28
12/11
-9.2
4
12/18
-3.3
25
12/24
0.1
49
01/01
0.4
52
09/11
2.6
71
09/17
6.3
88
09/24
-8.9
5
10/01
3.3
76
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Value
Ptile
12/04
-3.5
23
12/11
-6.7
9
12/18
0.7
54
12/22
-1.0
41
01/01
-2.7
28
01/08
-2.2
33
09/10
-2.9
33
09/18
-4.7
21
09/24
7.8
93
10/01
7.7
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Giants Defense
Chargers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
13
27
Yards / Game
5
31
Passing Yards / Game
16
7
Rushing Yards / Game
24
26

EPA

EPA / Play
8
18
EPA / Pass
4
21
EPA / Rush
21
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
19
Interceptions / Game
10
15
Fumbles / Game
1
23
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
21
4th Down Efficiency
18
4
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Giants Offense vs Chargers Defense
Giants logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
1
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
32
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
31

EPA

EPA / Play
32
10
EPA / Pass
27
3
EPA / Rush
27
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
32
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
16
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
5
RZ Efficiency
24
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

1-9
SU
1-8-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
8
W
W
U
12/04
-7
L
L
P
12/11
-12
L
L
U
12/18
-3
L
L
U
12/24
-3
L
L
U
01/01
-10
L
L
O
09/11
-3
L
P
O
09/17
-2
L
L
U
09/24
-14
L
L
U
10/01
-2
L
L
O
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-10
L
L
U
12/11
3
W
W
U
12/18
11
W
W
U
12/22
-5
L
L
O
01/01
9
W
W
U
01/08
-25
L
L
O
09/10
-16
L
L
U
09/18
-14
L
L
U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
-2
L
W
O