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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ jets week 16, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
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LAC logo
LACChargers
5-9
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
39°F
13 mph
17
NYJJets
6-8
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
39°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
1
3
14
3
21
Jets
14
0
0
3
17

Spread

LAC logo
+3

Total

OVER
37

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
223
225
Total Plays
56
59
Yards / Play
4.0
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.30
Passing Yards
136
156
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.62
Rushing Yards
87
69
Rush Attempts
30
23
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
17%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.00
Sacks
4
11
Sack Yards
-29
-71
Sack EPA
-6.83
-18.84
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
53
40
Penalty EPA
-6.28
-6.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+77
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-10.1
Home QB Adjustment
-31.2
Away QB Adjustment
-21.1
Market Regression
+37.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-21.1
Value
Ptile
10/07
-0.7
44
10/15
-7.9
6
10/28
-3.9
25
11/01
2.9
69
11/11
4.5
79
11/18
-3.1
29
11/25
-3.0
30
12/02
-3.5
27
12/09
2.9
68
12/16
-6.9
10
G. McElroy headshot

G. McElroy

Proj. Value
-5.5
Team Elo Adj
-31.2
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Jets Defense
Chargers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
19
20
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
13
1
Rushing Yards / Game
28
26

EPA

EPA / Play
19
11
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
28
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
14
23
Fumbles / Game
23
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
12
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
26
26
Jets Offense vs Chargers Defense
Jets logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
15
Yards / Game
30
9
Passing Yards / Game
27
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
5

EPA

EPA / Play
30
9
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
15
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
3
Interceptions / Game
28
18
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
3
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
29
4th Down Efficiency
17
8
RZ Efficiency
25
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-7
L
L
O
10/15
-11
L
L
O
10/28
-1
L
L
U
11/01
18
W
W
O
11/11
-10
L
L
O
11/18
-7
L
W
O
11/25
-3
L
L
U
12/02
-7
L
L
U
12/09
10
W
W
O
12/16
-24
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-6
L
W
U
10/14
26
W
W
O
10/21
-3
L
W
O
10/28
-21
L
L
O
11/11
-21
L
L
U
11/18
14
W
W
O
11/22
-30
L
L
O
12/02
1
W
L
U
12/09
7
W
W
U
12/17
-4
L
L
U