LACChargers
4-5
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
45°F
5 mph
23
GBPackers
3-6
TBD
Lambeau Field
45°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
7
3
7
20
Packers
0
10
6
7
23
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
394
397
Total Plays
62
71
Yards / Play
6.4
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.02
Passing Yards
244
295
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.27
Rushing Yards
150
102
Rush Attempts
24
28
Yards / Rush
6.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.97
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-27
Sack EPA
-2.79
-5.28
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
54
36
Penalty EPA
-5.99
-4.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model56.3%
Spread Pick
Packers+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-5
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+75.3
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+15.8
Net QB Adjustment
-20.9
Home QB Adjustment
-16.5
Away QB Adjustment
+4.5
Market Regression
+6.3
Final Difference
-44.2
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-16.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
13
Yards / Game
18
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
28
EPA
EPA / Play
22
25
EPA / Pass
18
23
EPA / Rush
31
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
30
Interceptions / Game
3
28
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
28
4th Down Efficiency
23
5
RZ Efficiency
13
13
Packers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
23
Yards / Game
10
28
Passing Yards / Game
25
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
16
EPA
EPA / Play
5
20
EPA / Pass
2
24
EPA / Rush
14
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
12
Interceptions / Game
14
25
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
28
RZ Efficiency
17
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U