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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ raiders week 1, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAC logo
LACChargers
-
24
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
63°F
12 mph
20
OAKRaiders
-
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
63°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
10
0
14
24
Raiders
7
3
0
10
20

Spread

OAK logo
+10.5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
317
366
Total Plays
62
65
Yards / Play
5.1
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.04
Passing Yards
240
218
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
14/32(44%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.01
Rushing Yards
77
148
Rush Attempts
23
32
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.67
-9.35
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-12
-7
Sack EPA
-2.12
-1.22
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
60
40
Penalty EPA
-8.26
-4.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market81.3%
Model74.3%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+10.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.8%
Cover Probability
63.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-121
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.1
Home QB Adjustment
-3.8
Away QB Adjustment
+10.3
Market Regression
-33.5
Final Difference
-184.6
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Value
Ptile
11/09
3.0
72
11/16
-5.2
14
11/23
7.6
94
11/30
-4.1
21
12/04
5.4
86
12/14
4.4
80
12/21
9.6
97
12/28
2.7
70
01/03
-4.9
16
01/11
4.1
78
J. Russell headshot

J. Russell

Proj. Value
-5.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Value
Ptile
10/19
-0.1
51
10/26
-4.2
21
11/02
-9.9
2
11/16
-3.9
22
11/23
1.5
62
11/30
-3.1
28
12/04
-8.5
5
12/14
-1.1
44
12/21
4.4
80
12/28
0.7
56

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chargers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
4
23
Yards / Game
10
25
Passing Yards / Game
4
15
Rushing Yards / Game
31
29

EPA

EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
1
27
EPA / Rush
28
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
3
Interceptions / Game
6
31
Fumbles / Game
3
23
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
7
4th Down Efficiency
13
28
RZ Efficiency
10
10
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Raiders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
31
12
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
21
21

EPA

EPA / Play
29
23
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
22
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
25
Interceptions / Game
22
20
Fumbles / Game
32
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
22
4th Down Efficiency
18
20
RZ Efficiency
29
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
1
W
L
P
11/16
-1
L
W
P
11/23
-3
L
L
P
11/30
-6
L
L
P
12/04
27
W
W
P
12/14
1
W
L
P
12/21
17
W
W
P
12/28
31
W
W
P
01/03
6
W
W
P
01/11
-11
L
L
P
OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-19
L
L
P
11/02
-24
L
L
P
11/09
-11
L
L
P
11/16
-2
L
W
P
11/23
21
W
W
P
11/30
-7
L
L
P
12/04
-27
L
L
P
12/14
-23
L
L
P
12/21
11
W
W
P
12/28
7
W
W
P