LACChargers
4-9
30
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
027
OAKRaiders
7-6
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
7
10
7
0
6
30
Raiders
3
7
7
7
3
27
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
449
Total Plays
62
75
Yards / Play
6.5
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.10
Passing Yards
306
276
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.69
+0.25
Rushing Yards
96
173
Rush Attempts
29
41
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
27
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
13
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
58%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.42
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-3
Sack EPA
-0.10
-2.36
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
20
56
Penalty EPA
-2.86
-7.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+9.6
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
30
Yards / Game
10
26
Passing Yards / Game
2
5
Rushing Yards / Game
18
23
EPA
EPA / Play
23
29
EPA / Pass
10
28
EPA / Rush
31
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
24
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
8
31
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
31
RZ Efficiency
21
19
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
23
Yards / Game
8
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17
EPA
EPA / Play
11
13
EPA / Pass
14
19
EPA / Rush
12
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
32
24
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
22
4th Down Efficiency
3
26
RZ Efficiency
23
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U