LACChargers
2-4
20
TBD
Nissan Stadium
77°F
2 mph
23
TENTitans
2-4
TBD
Nissan Stadium
77°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
7
0
10
20
Titans
3
7
0
13
23
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
403
Total Plays
60
61
Yards / Play
6.1
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.13
Passing Yards
326
306
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
24/30(80%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
10.2
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.50
Rushing Yards
39
97
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
1.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.55
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
19
17
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
55%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.43
-5.48
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-17
Sack EPA
-1.34
-3.92
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
29
54
Penalty EPA
-3.91
-6.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+13
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+52.9
Base HFA
+52.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.3
Home QB Adjustment
-5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
11
Yards / Game
10
22
Passing Yards / Game
3
30
Rushing Yards / Game
28
13
EPA
EPA / Play
11
13
EPA / Pass
11
16
EPA / Rush
25
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
5
Interceptions / Game
29
7
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
4
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
16
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
22
26
Titans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
13
Yards / Game
15
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
3
Rushing Yards / Game
3
18
EPA
EPA / Play
6
22
EPA / Pass
8
22
EPA / Rush
4
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
21
Interceptions / Game
6
21
Fumbles / Game
3
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
1
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U