KCChiefs
10-4
26
TBD
Soldier Field
45°F
10 mph
3
CHIBears
7-7
TBD
Soldier Field
45°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
10
0
9
26
Bears
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
234
Total Plays
63
59
Yards / Play
5.6
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.28
-0.18
Passing Yards
244
133
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
3.9
EPA / Pass
+0.42
-0.41
Rushing Yards
106
101
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
18
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
55%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-24
Sack EPA
-1.62
-4.93
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
71
50
Penalty EPA
-6.83
-6.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model68.6%
Spread Pick
Bears+7.0
Expected Value
+8.2%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-100
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,653
Home Field
+62.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.3
Market Regression
-8.6
Final Difference
-135.5
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
4
Yards / Game
4
8
Passing Yards / Game
5
11
Rushing Yards / Game
22
9
EPA
EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
2
11
EPA / Rush
7
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
12
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
14
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
6
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
11
11
Bears Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
10
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
18
15
Rushing Yards / Game
27
25
EPA
EPA / Play
28
16
EPA / Pass
24
9
EPA / Rush
29
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
16
4
Fumbles / Game
4
24
Turnover EPA / Game
22
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
10
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
24
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bears
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U