KCChiefs
9-2
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
2 mph
27
CINBengals
7-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
7
14
0
24
Bengals
7
7
3
10
27
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
431
Total Plays
54
66
Yards / Play
6.5
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.21
Passing Yards
211
279
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
25/31(81%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.64
Rushing Yards
138
152
Rush Attempts
25
34
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.41
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
26
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
55%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
75%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.93
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-7
Sack EPA
-3.93
-1.30
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
65
Penalty EPA
-2.69
-0.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model55.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,587
Away nfelo
1,641
Home Field
+47.0
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.0
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.0
Home QB Adjustment
+19.3
Away QB Adjustment
+20.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-38.3
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
5
Yards / Game
1
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
29
Rushing Yards / Game
20
5
EPA
EPA / Play
1
7
EPA / Pass
1
10
EPA / Rush
6
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
7
Interceptions / Game
7
15
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
12
RZ Efficiency
2
5
Bengals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
18
Yards / Game
11
14
Passing Yards / Game
1
28
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8
EPA
EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
18
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
13
21
Fumbles / Game
4
2
Turnover EPA / Game
23
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
32
24
RZ Efficiency
7
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-5-1
O/U