KCChiefs
11-4
31
TBD
Paycor Stadium
33°F
13 mph
34
CINBengals
9-6
TBD
Paycor Stadium
33°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
14
14
0
3
31
Bengals
7
10
7
10
34
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
414
475
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
7.1
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.34
+0.33
Passing Yards
--
415
Comp/Att
26/35(74%)
30/40(75%)
Yards / Pass
--
10.4
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.59
Rushing Yards
155
60
Rush Attempts
23
19
Yards / Rush
6.7
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.43
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
55%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-31
Sack EPA
--
-6.32
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
83
62
Penalty EPA
-11.67
-4.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,683
Home Field
+55.4
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.7
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
+20.4
Home QB Adjustment
+21.6
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
-10.8
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+21.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
1
19
Passing Yards / Game
4
28
Rushing Yards / Game
12
7
EPA
EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
1
14
EPA / Rush
5
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
1
Interceptions / Game
13
8
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
13
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
2
RZ Efficiency
11
17
Bengals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
17
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
20
Rushing Yards / Game
24
19
EPA
EPA / Play
12
24
EPA / Pass
9
22
EPA / Rush
22
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
17
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
22
4th Down Efficiency
5
31
RZ Efficiency
23
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U