KCChiefs
4-1
26
TBD
New Era Field
51°F
6 mph
17
BUFBills
4-1
TBD
New Era Field
51°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
6
7
6
26
Bills
3
7
0
7
17
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
466
206
Total Plays
73
50
Yards / Play
6.4
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.10
Passing Yards
221
--
Comp/Att
21/26(81%)
14/27(52%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.58
-0.12
Rushing Yards
245
84
Rush Attempts
46
23
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
15
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
64%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-0.65
-2.04
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-0.23
--
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
68
39
Penalty EPA
-10.61
-5.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-153
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,692
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+7.7
Home QB Adjustment
+26.7
Away QB Adjustment
+19.0
Market Regression
-9.0
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.0
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
8
13
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20
EPA
EPA / Play
2
16
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
9
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
21
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
11
5
Turnover EPA / Game
29
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
19
4th Down Efficiency
11
16
RZ Efficiency
19
17
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
19
EPA
EPA / Play
4
23
EPA / Pass
3
12
EPA / Rush
16
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
27
Interceptions / Game
9
6
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
24
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
12
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U