KCChiefs
8-0
23
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
7 mph
13
BUFBills
3-5
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
3
4
4
11
Bills
7
3
3
0
13
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
210
470
Total Plays
54
77
Yards / Play
3.9
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.17
Passing Yards
115
--
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
18/39(46%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.52
Rushing Yards
95
241
Rush Attempts
23
38
Yards / Rush
4.1
6.3
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
25
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
23%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-22.36
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-2.78
--
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
38
48
Penalty EPA
-5.45
-6.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-61
Home nfelo
1,450
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-108.3
Home QB Adjustment
-96.8
Away QB Adjustment
+11.5
Market Regression
-45.2
Final Difference
-113.5
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
J. Tuel
Proj. Value
-5.3
Team Elo Adj
-96.8
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
20
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
27
EPA
EPA / Play
9
8
EPA / Pass
17
2
EPA / Rush
7
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
4
Interceptions / Game
1
2
Fumbles / Game
28
24
Turnover EPA / Game
32
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
14
4th Down Efficiency
27
11
RZ Efficiency
6
6
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
7
Yards / Game
19
25
Passing Yards / Game
29
6
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22
EPA
EPA / Play
26
5
EPA / Pass
31
9
EPA / Rush
9
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
19
Interceptions / Game
15
3
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
29
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U