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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ bills week 9, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
8-0
23
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
7 mph
13
BUFBills
3-5
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
3
4
4
11
Bills
7
3
3
0
13

Spread

KC logo
-5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
210
470
Total Plays
54
77
Yards / Play
3.9
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.17
Passing Yards
115
--
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
18/39(46%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.52
Rushing Yards
95
241
Rush Attempts
23
38
Yards / Rush
4.1
6.3
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
15
25
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
23%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-22.36
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-2.78
--
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
38
48
Penalty EPA
-5.45
-6.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-108.3
Home QB Adjustment
-96.8
Away QB Adjustment
+11.5
Market Regression
-45.1
Final Difference
-113.3
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
Value
Ptile
10/29
5.9
87
11/11
-3.4
28
09/08
2.3
66
09/15
1.5
61
09/19
-3.4
28
09/29
2.2
66
10/06
-3.9
25
10/13
-7.0
11
10/20
2.0
64
10/27
0.3
52
J. Tuel headshot

J. Tuel

Proj. Value
-5.3
Team Elo Adj
-96.8
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Chiefs logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
3
20
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
27

EPA

EPA / Play
9
8
EPA / Pass
17
2
EPA / Rush
7
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
4
Interceptions / Game
1
2
Fumbles / Game
28
24
Turnover EPA / Game
32
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
14
4th Down Efficiency
27
11
RZ Efficiency
6
6
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Bills logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
22
7
Yards / Game
19
25
Passing Yards / Game
29
6
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22

EPA

EPA / Play
26
5
EPA / Pass
31
9
EPA / Rush
9
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
19
Interceptions / Game
15
3
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
29
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-7
L
L
U
12/30
-35
L
L
P
09/08
26
W
W
U
09/15
1
W
L
U
09/19
10
W
W
U
09/29
24
W
W
U
10/06
9
W
W
O
10/13
17
W
W
U
10/20
1
W
L
U
10/27
6
W
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-14
L
L
U
12/30
19
W
W
U
09/08
-2
L
W
U
09/15
1
W
W
O
09/22
-7
L
L
O
09/29
3
W
W
U
10/03
-13
L
L
O
10/13
-3
L
W
O
10/20
2
W
W
O
10/27
-18
L
L
O