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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ bills week 10, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
5-3
17
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
10 mph
13
BUFBills
5-3
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
0
0
14
17
Bills
7
3
3
0
13

Spread

KC logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
278
364
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
4.7
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.10
Passing Yards
151
253
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
29/48(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.00
Rushing Yards
127
111
Rush Attempts
24
22
Yards / Rush
5.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
23%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
+0.49
-4.85
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-26
-6
Sack EPA
-8.82
-1.31
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
19
44
Penalty EPA
-1.75
-7.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+24.0
Home QB Adjustment
+29.1
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
-2.8
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Value
Ptile
12/22
-6.7
12
01/04
12.7
99
09/07
-7.8
8
09/14
1.4
60
09/21
1.6
62
09/29
6.0
86
10/05
-2.2
34
10/19
0.5
52
10/26
1.7
63
11/02
1.8
64
K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+29.1
Value
Ptile
10/02
1.8
64
10/09
-7.0
10
12/18
4.1
77
12/24
0.1
53
01/01
-3.3
29
12/29
4.7
82
10/05
2.4
68
10/12
-1.3
41
10/19
-1.7
38
10/26
1.6
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Chiefs logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
15
4
Yards / Game
25
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
14
Rushing Yards / Game
11
10

EPA

EPA / Play
9
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
4
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
15
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
21
14
RZ Efficiency
9
10
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Bills logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
18
2
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
11
20
Rushing Yards / Game
25
28

EPA

EPA / Play
25
12
EPA / Pass
21
8
EPA / Rush
28
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
7
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
15
25
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
30
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-3
L
W
O
01/04
-1
L
L
O
09/07
-16
L
L
U
09/14
-7
L
W
U
09/21
19
W
W
O
09/29
27
W
W
O
10/05
-5
L
L
U
10/19
3
W
W
U
10/26
27
W
W
U
11/02
14
W
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
19
W
W
U
12/29
-14
L
L
O
09/07
3
W
W
U
09/14
19
W
W
U
09/21
-12
L
L
U
09/28
-6
L
L
U
10/05
3
W
W
U
10/12
-15
L
L
O
10/19
1
W
L
U
10/26
20
W
W
O