KCChiefs
5-3
17
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
10 mph
13
BUFBills
5-3
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
0
0
14
17
Bills
7
3
3
0
13
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
278
364
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
4.7
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.10
Passing Yards
151
253
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
29/48(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.00
Rushing Yards
127
111
Rush Attempts
24
22
Yards / Rush
5.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
23%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
+0.49
-4.85
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-26
-6
Sack EPA
-8.82
-1.31
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
19
44
Penalty EPA
-1.75
-7.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+24.0
Home QB Adjustment
+29.1
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
-1.6
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+29.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
4
Yards / Game
25
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
14
Rushing Yards / Game
11
10
EPA
EPA / Play
9
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
4
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
15
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
21
14
RZ Efficiency
9
10
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
2
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
11
20
Rushing Yards / Game
25
28
EPA
EPA / Play
25
12
EPA / Pass
21
8
EPA / Rush
28
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
7
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
15
25
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
30
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U