KCChiefs
0-1
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
85°F
7 mph
24
DENBroncos
1-0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
85°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
7
0
7
17
Broncos
7
14
0
3
24
Spread
+13
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
380
325
Total Plays
75
46
Yards / Play
5.1
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.35
Passing Yards
247
237
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
21/26(81%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.46
Rushing Yards
133
88
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
18
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
69%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
11
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-5
Sack EPA
-1.13
-0.95
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
62
71
Penalty EPA
-8.03
-12.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model82.9%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+13.0
Expected Value
+0.3%
Cover Probability
51.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+218
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+18.6
Home QB Adjustment
+18.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.2
Market Regression
+6.6
Final Difference
274.7
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
17
Yards / Game
25
3
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
11
2
EPA
EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
12
9
EPA / Rush
4
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
31
Interceptions / Game
1
6
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
32
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
21
26
RZ Efficiency
9
25
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
5
8
Passing Yards / Game
4
20
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28
EPA
EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
9
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
7
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
5
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
17
8
RZ Efficiency
4
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U