KCChiefs
6-1
9
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
26°F
7 mph
24
DENBroncos
2-5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
26°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
6
0
0
9
Broncos
7
7
0
10
24
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
274
240
Total Plays
57
65
Yards / Play
4.8
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.02
Passing Yards
212
87
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
12/19(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.43
-0.26
Rushing Yards
62
153
Rush Attempts
16
40
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
30%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-16.40
+2.76
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-28
-27
Sack EPA
-7.13
-10.42
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
38
35
Penalty EPA
-5.46
-4.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-178
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,646
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
-19.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-5.5
Home QB Adjustment
+6.5
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
+39.1
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
8
29
Passing Yards / Game
11
14
Rushing Yards / Game
17
30
EPA
EPA / Play
10
24
EPA / Pass
13
26
EPA / Rush
16
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
12
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
2
4th Down Efficiency
12
10
RZ Efficiency
20
21
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
2
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
19
17
EPA
EPA / Play
20
7
EPA / Pass
20
4
EPA / Rush
19
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
31
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U