KCChiefs
5-4
19
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
6 mph
22
DENBroncos
8-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
3
7
6
19
Broncos
6
0
7
9
22
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
342
Total Plays
62
61
Yards / Play
5.0
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.09
Passing Yards
249
283
Comp/Att
29/45(64%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.12
Rushing Yards
62
59
Rush Attempts
14
21
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
38%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
25%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.37
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-27
-12
Sack EPA
-2.99
-3.03
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
69
147
Penalty EPA
-11.55
-11.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-93
Home nfelo
1,554
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
-2.1
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-9.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
3
Yards / Game
7
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
16
Rushing Yards / Game
16
4
EPA
EPA / Play
4
4
EPA / Pass
6
2
EPA / Rush
3
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
10
22
Fumbles / Game
1
16
Turnover EPA / Game
26
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
5
RZ Efficiency
7
1
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
4
Yards / Game
13
7
Passing Yards / Game
27
26
Rushing Yards / Game
11
9
EPA
EPA / Play
20
17
EPA / Pass
13
12
EPA / Rush
14
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
20
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
24
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
20
1
RZ Efficiency
15
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U