KCChiefs
9-6
27
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
17°F
4 mph
24
DENBroncos
5-10
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
17°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
7
4
3
21
Broncos
3
7
0
8
18
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
336
Total Plays
65
65
Yards / Play
5.8
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.10
Passing Yards
269
226
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.16
Rushing Yards
110
110
Rush Attempts
27
29
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.95
-15.82
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-15
-28
Sack EPA
-2.50
-13.14
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-3.54
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+103.1
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-97.2
Market Regression
+8.3
Final Difference
26.4
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-97.2
No recent game data available
P. Lynch
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
22
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
3
10
Rushing Yards / Game
10
5
EPA
EPA / Play
3
9
EPA / Pass
5
16
EPA / Rush
5
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
3
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
29
25
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
2
Rushing Yards / Game
12
28
EPA
EPA / Play
29
24
EPA / Pass
31
19
EPA / Rush
16
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
17
Interceptions / Game
31
9
Fumbles / Game
23
21
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
26
4th Down Efficiency
26
20
RZ Efficiency
32
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Broncos
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U