KCChiefs
7-1
37
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
53°F
16 mph
21
CLEBrowns
2-5
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
53°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
14
13
3
37
Browns
3
12
0
6
21
Spread
-8.5
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
499
388
Total Plays
58
73
Yards / Play
8.6
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.44
+0.06
Passing Yards
360
286
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
30/46(65%)
Yards / Pass
11.3
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.74
+0.05
Rushing Yards
139
102
Rush Attempts
24
25
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
26
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
60%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-0.49
-4.65
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-22
Sack EPA
-3.79
-4.45
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
86
20
Penalty EPA
-10.82
-2.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model72.6%
Spread Pick
Browns+8.5
Expected Value
+14.1%
Cover Probability
59.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-129
Home nfelo
1,424
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+68.3
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-27.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+31.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-169.0
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+31.6
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
21
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
7
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28
EPA
EPA / Play
1
16
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
1
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
12
1
Turnover EPA / Game
29
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
6
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
1
19
Browns Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
24
Yards / Game
11
31
Passing Yards / Game
30
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
27
EPA
EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
23
16
EPA / Rush
14
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
28
Interceptions / Game
26
9
Fumbles / Game
9
7
Turnover EPA / Game
14
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
29
28
RZ Efficiency
5
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Browns
2-7-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U