KCChiefs
12-1
21
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
40°F
18 mph
7
CLEBrowns
3-10
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
40°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
7
7
0
21
Browns
0
0
7
0
7
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
266
Total Plays
75
60
Yards / Play
4.1
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.42
Passing Yards
--
127
Comp/Att
21/40(53%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.7
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.81
Rushing Yards
132
139
Rush Attempts
35
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
39%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+5.65
-23.92
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-37
Sack EPA
--
-8.89
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
45
Penalty EPA
-3.86
-3.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-121
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+46.6
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.1
Net QB Adjustment
+38.1
Home QB Adjustment
+22.3
Away QB Adjustment
-15.8
Market Regression
-10.8
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-15.8
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
27
Yards / Game
19
18
Passing Yards / Game
19
10
Rushing Yards / Game
26
21
EPA
EPA / Play
10
9
EPA / Pass
10
21
EPA / Rush
12
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
2
Interceptions / Game
14
32
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
22
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
3
RZ Efficiency
21
25
Browns Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
28
9
Passing Yards / Game
12
17
Rushing Yards / Game
29
10
EPA
EPA / Play
32
16
EPA / Pass
32
25
EPA / Rush
22
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
32
17
Fumbles / Game
17
26
Turnover EPA / Game
1
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
18
9
RZ Efficiency
27
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U