KCChiefs
16-2
9
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
63°F
9 mph
31
TBBuccaneers
14-5
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
63°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
3
3
0
9
Buccaneers
7
14
10
0
31
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
340
Total Plays
69
63
Yards / Play
5.1
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.25
Passing Yards
243
195
Comp/Att
26/49(53%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.30
Rushing Yards
107
145
Rush Attempts
17
33
Yards / Rush
6.3
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
26
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
23%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.93
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-27
-6
Sack EPA
-4.68
-1.65
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
120
--
Penalty EPA
-13.72
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,665
Away nfelo
1,665
Home Field
+1.1
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+15.6
Away QB Adjustment
+13.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-34.6
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
1
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
21
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1
EPA
EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
2
6
EPA / Rush
9
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
30
Interceptions / Game
5
3
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
13
RZ Efficiency
19
11
Buccaneers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
10
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
17
Rushing Yards / Game
25
19
EPA
EPA / Play
5
23
EPA / Pass
5
12
EPA / Rush
21
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
27
Interceptions / Game
15
6
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
29
RZ Efficiency
11
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U