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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ cardinals week 14, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
7-5
14
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
17
ARICardinals
9-3
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
7
0
0
14
Cardinals
3
3
11
0
17

Spread

ARI logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
390
368
Total Plays
61
66
Yards / Play
6.4
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.01
Passing Yards
264
227
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
15/31(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.19
Rushing Yards
126
141
Rush Attempts
17
33
Yards / Rush
7.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.42
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.60
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-29
-14
Sack EPA
-6.01
-2.69
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
75
40
Penalty EPA
-7.31
-6.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model51.2%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-21.6
Home QB Adjustment
-35.8
Away QB Adjustment
-14.2
Market Regression
-8.6
Final Difference
-8.6
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-14.2
Value
Ptile
09/21
1.6
62
09/29
6.0
86
10/05
-2.2
34
10/19
0.5
52
10/26
1.7
63
11/02
1.8
64
11/09
-2.8
30
11/16
-2.6
32
11/20
-0.8
44
11/30
-7.3
10
D. Stanton headshot

D. Stanton

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-35.8
Value
Ptile
12/27
-9.0
5
12/05
2.6
66
12/12
-3.8
25
12/19
5.7
86
09/14
-7.7
9
09/21
3.4
74
10/05
-6.6
12
11/16
2.1
66
11/23
-6.3
14
11/30
-0.2
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Chiefs logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
15
5
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
24
26
Rushing Yards / Game
11
17

EPA

EPA / Play
9
3
EPA / Pass
12
6
EPA / Rush
4
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
1
9
Fumbles / Game
22
24
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
8
4th Down Efficiency
21
5
RZ Efficiency
9
3
Cardinals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Cardinals logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
24
2
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
31
28

EPA

EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
20
8
EPA / Rush
31
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
7
Interceptions / Game
13
30
Fumbles / Game
5
25
Turnover EPA / Game
19
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
1
8
RZ Efficiency
28
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
19
W
W
O
09/29
27
W
W
O
10/05
-5
L
L
U
10/19
3
W
W
U
10/26
27
W
W
U
11/02
14
W
W
U
11/09
4
W
W
U
11/16
4
W
W
O
11/20
-4
L
L
O
11/30
-13
L
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
9
W
W
U
10/05
-21
L
L
O
10/12
10
W
W
O
10/19
11
W
W
U
10/26
4
W
W
U
11/02
11
W
W
P
11/09
17
W
W
O
11/16
8
W
W
U
11/23
-16
L
L
U
11/30
-11
L
L
O