KCChiefs
7-5
14
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
017
ARICardinals
9-3
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
7
0
0
14
Cardinals
3
3
11
0
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
368
Total Plays
61
66
Yards / Play
6.4
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.01
Passing Yards
264
227
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
15/31(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.19
Rushing Yards
126
141
Rush Attempts
17
33
Yards / Rush
7.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.42
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.60
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-29
-14
Sack EPA
-6.01
-2.69
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
75
40
Penalty EPA
-7.31
-6.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model51.4%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-21.6
Home QB Adjustment
-35.8
Away QB Adjustment
-14.2
Market Regression
-9.9
Final Difference
-9.9
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-14.2
D. Stanton
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-35.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
5
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
24
26
Rushing Yards / Game
11
17
EPA
EPA / Play
9
3
EPA / Pass
12
6
EPA / Rush
4
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
1
9
Fumbles / Game
22
24
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
8
4th Down Efficiency
21
5
RZ Efficiency
9
3
Cardinals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
2
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
31
28
EPA
EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
20
8
EPA / Rush
31
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
7
Interceptions / Game
13
30
Fumbles / Game
5
25
Turnover EPA / Game
19
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
1
8
RZ Efficiency
28
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U