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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ chargers week 1, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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KC logo
KCChiefs
-
38
TBD
StubHub Center
84°F
8 mph
28
LACChargers
-
LAC logo
TBD
StubHub Center
84°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
8
3
14
7
32
Chargers
6
6
0
16
28

Spread

KC logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
362
545
Total Plays
55
77
Yards / Play
6.6
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.39
+0.10
Passing Yards
256
420
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
34/53(64%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.47
+0.30
Rushing Yards
106
125
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
19
33
Passing 1st downs
10
23
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
40%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+7.37
-3.69
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
-1.65
-2.09
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
50
45
Penalty EPA
-5.91
-5.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+63
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+31.3
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
-25.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+36.8
Home QB Adjustment
+10.9
Away QB Adjustment
-25.9
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-25.9
Value
Ptile
12/31
-1.8
39
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
Value
Ptile
10/22
-0.8
46
10/29
-3.5
28
11/12
2.5
70
11/19
2.8
72
11/23
11.8
99
12/03
4.9
84
12/10
3.0
74
12/16
-7.3
11
12/24
1.5
63
12/31
10.5
98

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
11
Yards / Game
1
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
8
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10

EPA

EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
1
8
EPA / Rush
1
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
25
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
19
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
1
9
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
6
24
Yards / Game
13
31
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27

EPA

EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
3
16
EPA / Rush
9
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
11
9
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
9
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
10
W
W
O
11/05
-11
L
L
U
11/19
-3
L
L
U
11/26
-6
L
L
U
12/03
-7
L
L
O
12/10
11
W
W
U
12/16
17
W
W
U
12/24
16
W
W
U
12/31
3
W
W
O
01/06
-1
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
21
W
W
U
10/29
-8
L
L
U
11/12
-3
L
W
U
11/19
30
W
W
O
11/23
22
W
W
U
12/03
9
W
L
U
12/10
17
W
W
U
12/16
-17
L
L
U
12/24
7
W
L
U
12/31
20
W
W
U