KCChiefs
-
38
TBD
StubHub Center
84°F
8 mph
28
LACChargers
-
TBD
StubHub Center
84°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
8
3
14
7
32
Chargers
6
6
0
16
28
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
545
Total Plays
55
77
Yards / Play
6.6
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.39
+0.10
Passing Yards
256
420
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
34/53(64%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.47
+0.30
Rushing Yards
106
125
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
33
Passing 1st downs
10
23
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
40%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+7.37
-3.69
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
-1.65
-2.09
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
50
45
Penalty EPA
-5.91
-5.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+30.9
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
-25.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+36.8
Home QB Adjustment
+10.9
Away QB Adjustment
-25.9
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-25.9
Value
Ptile
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
11
Yards / Game
1
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
8
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10
EPA
EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
1
8
EPA / Rush
1
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
25
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
19
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
1
9
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
24
Yards / Game
13
31
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27
EPA
EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
3
16
EPA / Rush
9
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
11
9
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
9
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
1-9
O/U