KCChiefs
1-0
23
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
020
LACChargers
1-0
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chiefs
0
6
3
11
3
23
Chargers
7
7
3
3
0
20
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
416
479
Total Plays
71
79
Yards / Play
5.9
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.01
Passing Yards
291
296
Comp/Att
27/48(56%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.08
Rushing Yards
125
183
Rush Attempts
22
44
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
28
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
47%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.49
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-13
-15
Sack EPA
-1.92
-3.50
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
90
40
Penalty EPA
-7.90
-4.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-197
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,675
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-20.1
Home QB Adjustment
-13.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.2
Market Regression
-9.1
Final Difference
-222.9
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+7.2
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.0
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
23
Yards / Game
1
10
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
16
17
EPA
EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
9
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
11
24
Turnover EPA / Game
29
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
22
4th Down Efficiency
11
26
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
10
Yards / Game
10
15
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
18
19
EPA
EPA / Play
23
23
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
31
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
27
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
30
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
21
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
10-0
SU
9-0-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U