KCChiefs
2-0
24
TBD
StubHub Center
84°F
5 mph
10
LACChargers
0-2
TBD
StubHub Center
84°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
14
3
0
7
24
Chargers
7
3
0
0
10
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
330
Total Plays
51
68
Yards / Play
6.1
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.20
Passing Yards
122
226
Comp/Att
16/21(76%)
20/40(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.26
Rushing Yards
189
104
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
7.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.31
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-12.20
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-33
-11
Sack EPA
-8.45
-2.26
Penalties
13
8
Penalty Yards
122
61
Penalty EPA
-15.66
-10.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+41.8
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-6.2
Home QB Adjustment
+7.3
Away QB Adjustment
+13.6
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
6
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
18
Rushing Yards / Game
10
31
EPA
EPA / Play
3
10
EPA / Pass
5
3
EPA / Rush
5
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
32
Interceptions / Game
3
5
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
19
4th Down Efficiency
29
5
RZ Efficiency
29
1
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
15
Yards / Game
5
29
Passing Yards / Game
16
2
Rushing Yards / Game
24
28
EPA
EPA / Play
8
24
EPA / Pass
4
19
EPA / Rush
21
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
10
9
Fumbles / Game
1
21
Turnover EPA / Game
30
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
26
4th Down Efficiency
18
20
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U