KCChiefs
1-6
13
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
63°F
12 mph
31
LACChargers
3-4
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
63°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
3
3
7
13
Chargers
7
3
0
9
19
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
339
Total Plays
60
47
Yards / Play
4.8
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.27
Passing Yards
176
216
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
18/20(90%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
10.8
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.46
Rushing Yards
113
123
Rush Attempts
30
26
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
58%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-12.38
-0.49
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-4
Sack EPA
-5.62
-1.12
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
37
54
Penalty EPA
-3.70
-5.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+157
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-18.8
Home QB Adjustment
-19.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
-42.8
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-19.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
15
Yards / Game
24
9
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5
EPA
EPA / Play
31
9
EPA / Pass
31
13
EPA / Rush
16
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
3
Interceptions / Game
31
18
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
29
4th Down Efficiency
19
8
RZ Efficiency
32
32
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
25
Yards / Game
31
19
Passing Yards / Game
13
4
Rushing Yards / Game
28
27
EPA
EPA / Play
19
31
EPA / Pass
20
32
EPA / Rush
28
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
14
31
Fumbles / Game
23
26
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
26
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U