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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ chargers week 11, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
6-4
24
TBD
Azteca Stadium
67°F
7 mph
17
LACChargers
4-6
LAC logo
TBD
Azteca Stadium
67°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
10
14
0
24
Chargers
3
6
8
0
17

Spread

KC logo
-6

Total

UNDER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
310
440
Total Plays
60
74
Yards / Play
5.2
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.05
Passing Yards
180
347
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
28/53(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.04
Rushing Yards
130
93
Rush Attempts
27
19
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.84
-14.74
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-2
-8
Sack EPA
-0.82
-3.20
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
102
60
Penalty EPA
-4.17
-6.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model67.0%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.2%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-88
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+12.9
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
-22.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.6
Time Adj
+18.0
Net QB Adjustment
-35.1
Home QB Adjustment
-11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+23.4
Market Regression
-3.5
Final Difference
-123.4
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+23.4
Value
Ptile
01/12
0.2
48
01/20
1.2
55
09/08
10.6
98
09/15
10.0
97
09/22
10.0
96
09/29
4.6
82
10/06
-1.2
45
10/13
0.0
52
10/17
-0.3
50
11/10
11.0
99
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Value
Ptile
09/08
3.1
72
09/15
-1.1
45
09/22
1.0
60
09/29
4.9
83
10/06
-3.2
30
10/13
0.3
54
10/20
5.1
84
10/27
-1.1
46
11/03
0.6
57
11/07
-12.0
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
13
Yards / Game
4
6
Passing Yards / Game
5
3
Rushing Yards / Game
22
18

EPA

EPA / Play
2
22
EPA / Pass
2
22
EPA / Rush
7
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
21
Interceptions / Game
3
21
Fumbles / Game
14
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
3
28
RZ Efficiency
11
21
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
10
17
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25

EPA

EPA / Play
11
16
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
25
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
29
4
Fumbles / Game
18
24
Turnover EPA / Game
4
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
10
4th Down Efficiency
9
17
RZ Efficiency
22
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
14
W
W
O
09/15
18
W
W
U
09/22
5
W
W
O
09/29
4
W
L
O
10/06
-6
L
L
U
10/13
-7
L
L
O
10/17
24
W
W
U
10/27
-7
L
L
O
11/03
3
W
W
O
11/10
-3
L
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
6
W
P
O
09/15
-3
L
L
U
09/22
-7
L
L
U
09/29
20
W
W
U
10/06
-7
L
L
U
10/13
-7
L
L
U
10/20
-3
L
P
O
10/27
1
W
W
U
11/03
15
W
W
U
11/07
-2
L
L
O