KCChiefs
6-4
24
TBD
Azteca Stadium
67°F
7 mph
17
LACChargers
4-6
TBD
Azteca Stadium
67°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
10
14
0
24
Chargers
3
6
8
0
17
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
310
440
Total Plays
60
74
Yards / Play
5.2
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.05
Passing Yards
180
347
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
28/53(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.04
Rushing Yards
130
93
Rush Attempts
27
19
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.84
-14.74
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-2
-8
Sack EPA
-0.82
-3.20
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
102
60
Penalty EPA
-4.17
-6.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model66.9%
Spread Pick
Chargers+6.0
Expected Value
+0.2%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-85
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+12.9
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
-22.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.6
Time Adj
+18.0
Net QB Adjustment
-35.1
Home QB Adjustment
-11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+23.4
Market Regression
-2.4
Final Difference
-122.3
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+23.4
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
13
Yards / Game
4
6
Passing Yards / Game
5
3
Rushing Yards / Game
22
18
EPA
EPA / Play
2
22
EPA / Pass
2
22
EPA / Rush
7
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
21
Interceptions / Game
3
21
Fumbles / Game
14
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
3
28
RZ Efficiency
11
21
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
10
17
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25
EPA
EPA / Play
11
16
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
25
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
29
4
Fumbles / Game
18
24
Turnover EPA / Game
4
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
10
4th Down Efficiency
9
17
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
3-7
O/U