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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ chargers week 17, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
11-4
24
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
73°F
1 mph
27
LACChargers
8-7
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
73°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chiefs
14
7
3
0
0
24
Chargers
7
7
0
10
3
27

Spread

KC logo
+14.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
332
405
Total Plays
69
72
Yards / Play
4.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.11
Passing Yards
189
219
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.15
Rushing Yards
143
186
Rush Attempts
37
36
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
43%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.23
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-10
Sack EPA
-3.10
-2.85
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
22
Penalty EPA
--
-4.19

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market87.9%
Model85.9%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs+14.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+165
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+145.4
Home QB Adjustment
+15.2
Away QB Adjustment
-130.2
Market Regression
+91.8
Final Difference
313.7
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

W. Daniel headshot

W. Daniel

Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-130.2
No recent game data available
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.2
Value
Ptile
10/14
1.3
60
10/20
4.8
83
11/03
3.0
71
11/10
-1.7
41
11/17
0.5
54
11/24
10.3
96
12/01
0.5
53
12/08
5.3
84
12/12
-0.4
48
12/22
-3.2
30

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
9
Yards / Game
12
23
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14

EPA

EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
7
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
28
Interceptions / Game
1
24
Fumbles / Game
28
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
15
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
8
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
22

EPA

EPA / Play
2
5
EPA / Pass
2
9
EPA / Rush
10
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
19
Interceptions / Game
5
3
Fumbles / Game
7
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
21
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
17
W
W
U
10/20
1
W
L
U
10/27
6
W
L
O
11/03
10
W
W
U
11/17
-10
L
L
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
12/01
-7
L
L
O
12/08
35
W
W
O
12/15
25
W
W
O
12/22
-16
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
10
W
W
U
10/20
18
W
W
U
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
-8
L
L
U
11/17
-4
L
L
U
11/24
3
W
W
O
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
23
W
W
O
12/12
7
W
W
U
12/22
13
W
W
U