KCChiefs
11-4
24
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
73°F
1 mph
27
LACChargers
8-7
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
73°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chiefs
14
7
3
0
0
24
Chargers
7
7
0
10
3
27
Spread
+14.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
405
Total Plays
69
72
Yards / Play
4.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.11
Passing Yards
189
219
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.15
Rushing Yards
143
186
Rush Attempts
37
36
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
43%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.23
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-11
-10
Sack EPA
-3.10
-2.85
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
22
Penalty EPA
--
-4.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market87.9%
Model86.3%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+14.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+161
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+145.4
Home QB Adjustment
+15.2
Away QB Adjustment
-130.2
Market Regression
+107.7
Final Difference
320.0
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
W. Daniel
Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-130.2
No recent game data available
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
9
Yards / Game
12
23
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
7
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
28
Interceptions / Game
1
24
Fumbles / Game
28
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
15
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
8
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
22
EPA
EPA / Play
2
5
EPA / Pass
2
9
EPA / Rush
10
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
19
Interceptions / Game
5
3
Fumbles / Game
7
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U