KCChiefs
11-4
37
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
59°F
10 mph
27
LACChargers
5-10
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
59°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
17
8
3
31
Chargers
3
7
1
10
21
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
398
Total Plays
60
64
Yards / Play
6.1
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.01
Passing Yards
262
--
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.07
Rushing Yards
103
129
Rush Attempts
31
26
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
26
Passing 1st downs
17
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
67%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
43%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.96
-9.03
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-2
--
Sack EPA
-0.51
--
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
19
50
Penalty EPA
-4.90
-8.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model68.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-107
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-25.1
Home QB Adjustment
-17.8
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
-28.6
Final Difference
-137.7
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-17.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
21
15
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
19
12
EPA
EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
16
13
EPA / Rush
12
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
23
12
Turnover EPA / Game
22
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
25
RZ Efficiency
28
14
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
17
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27
EPA
EPA / Play
17
9
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
27
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
23
Interceptions / Game
31
3
Fumbles / Game
31
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
23
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U