nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ colts week 5, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

KC logo
KCChiefs
1-3
28
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
24
INDColts
0-4
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
14
7
7
28
Colts
7
17
0
0
24

Spread

KC logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
436
355
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
6.3
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.14
Passing Yards
242
--
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.44
+0.42
Rushing Yards
194
78
Rush Attempts
38
27
Yards / Rush
5.1
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
26
15
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
57%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-3.43
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
39
40
Penalty EPA
-3.09
-3.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+43
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-69.1
Home QB Adjustment
-73.2
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
Value
Ptile
11/28
9.6
97
12/05
-2.2
34
12/19
-4.3
21
12/26
9.2
96
01/02
-15.3
0
01/09
-12.5
1
09/11
-4.0
25
09/18
-8.7
4
09/25
0.8
58
10/02
0.8
59
C. Painter headshot

C. Painter

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-73.2
Value
Ptile
10/03
-1.4
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
Chiefs logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
31
28
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
15
29

EPA

EPA / Play
29
25
EPA / Pass
21
29
EPA / Rush
31
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
23
31
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
23
RZ Efficiency
32
31
Colts Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Colts logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
30
11
Passing Yards / Game
27
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
26

EPA

EPA / Play
31
21
EPA / Pass
28
22
EPA / Rush
30
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
20
Interceptions / Game
13
5
Fumbles / Game
31
18
Turnover EPA / Game
5
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
18
RZ Efficiency
27
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
4
W
L
U
12/12
-31
L
L
U
12/19
14
W
W
U
12/26
20
W
W
O
01/02
-21
L
L
U
01/09
-23
L
L
U
09/11
-34
L
L
O
09/18
-45
L
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
U
10/02
5
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
-3
L
L
O
12/09
2
W
L
O
12/19
10
W
W
O
12/26
5
W
W
O
01/02
3
W
L
U
01/08
-1
L
L
U
09/11
-27
L
L
U
09/18
-8
L
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
O
10/03
-7
L
W
O