KCChiefs
1-3
28
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
024
INDColts
0-4
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
14
7
7
28
Colts
7
17
0
0
24
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
436
355
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
6.3
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.14
Passing Yards
242
--
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.44
+0.42
Rushing Yards
194
78
Rush Attempts
38
27
Yards / Rush
5.1
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
15
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
57%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-3.43
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
39
40
Penalty EPA
-3.09
-3.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,443
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-69.1
Home QB Adjustment
-73.2
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
C. Painter
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-73.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
28
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
15
29
EPA
EPA / Play
29
25
EPA / Pass
21
29
EPA / Rush
31
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
23
31
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
14
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
15
23
RZ Efficiency
32
31
Colts Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
30
11
Passing Yards / Game
27
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
26
EPA
EPA / Play
31
21
EPA / Pass
28
22
EPA / Rush
30
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
20
Interceptions / Game
13
5
Fumbles / Game
31
18
Turnover EPA / Game
5
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
18
RZ Efficiency
27
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U