KCChiefs
11-5
44
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
045
INDColts
11-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
10
21
10
3
44
Colts
7
3
21
14
45
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
513
536
Total Plays
80
65
Yards / Play
6.4
8.2
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.26
Passing Yards
363
436
Comp/Att
30/46(65%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
9.7
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.30
Rushing Yards
150
100
Rush Attempts
32
19
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
28
Passing 1st downs
16
23
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
56%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
80%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
4
5
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.79
-19.51
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-7
Sack EPA
-6.65
-1.13
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
15
19
Penalty EPA
-1.45
-2.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model47.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.2
Home QB Adjustment
+23.6
Away QB Adjustment
+15.4
Market Regression
-23.2
Final Difference
19.4
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+23.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
14
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
10
30
EPA
EPA / Play
9
20
EPA / Pass
17
21
EPA / Rush
7
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
27
Interceptions / Game
1
21
Fumbles / Game
28
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
23
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
6
30
Colts Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
11
25
Passing Yards / Game
11
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
22
EPA
EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
16
9
EPA / Rush
6
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
2
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
20
RZ Efficiency
10
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U