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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ dolphins week 3, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
0-2
34
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
4 mph
15
MIADolphins
1-1
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
14
7
13
34
Dolphins
0
3
10
0
13

Spread

KC logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
342
332
Total Plays
72
67
Yards / Play
4.8
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.23
Passing Yards
168
191
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
21/43(49%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.32
Rushing Yards
174
141
Rush Attempts
41
20
Yards / Rush
4.2
7.0
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
56%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.52
--
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-18
-14
Sack EPA
-9.46
-5.38
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
23
65
Penalty EPA
-3.57
-7.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model62.6%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.9
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-11.9
Final Difference
89.3
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Value
Ptile
11/03
-3.7
27
11/17
1.1
57
11/24
1.7
62
12/01
6.6
88
12/08
1.6
61
12/15
9.5
95
12/22
-6.7
12
01/04
12.7
99
09/07
-7.8
8
09/14
1.4
60
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
Value
Ptile
11/11
-1.0
44
11/17
-2.7
34
11/24
3.4
73
12/01
5.6
85
12/08
4.4
81
12/15
3.8
75
12/22
-12.5
1
12/29
-4.9
19
09/07
-2.3
34
09/14
-1.8
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Chiefs logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
15
19
Yards / Game
25
11
Passing Yards / Game
24
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
23

EPA

EPA / Play
9
19
EPA / Pass
12
20
EPA / Rush
4
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
10
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
32
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
28
4th Down Efficiency
21
27
RZ Efficiency
9
13
Dolphins Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Dolphins logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
11
2
Yards / Game
14
8
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
12
28

EPA

EPA / Play
13
12
EPA / Pass
16
8
EPA / Rush
15
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
7
Interceptions / Game
8
30
Fumbles / Game
15
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
5
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
21
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-10
L
L
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
12/01
-7
L
L
O
12/08
35
W
W
O
12/15
25
W
W
O
12/22
-16
L
L
U
12/29
-3
L
W
O
01/04
-1
L
L
O
09/07
-16
L
L
U
09/14
-7
L
W
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
-3
L
L
O
11/17
4
W
W
U
11/24
-4
L
W
U
12/01
20
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
W
O
12/15
4
W
W
U
12/22
-19
L
L
U
12/29
-13
L
L
U
09/07
13
W
W
O
09/14
-19
L
L
U