KCChiefs
0-2
34
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
4 mph
15
MIADolphins
1-1
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
14
7
13
34
Dolphins
0
3
10
0
13
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
332
Total Plays
72
67
Yards / Play
4.8
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.23
Passing Yards
168
191
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
21/43(49%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.32
Rushing Yards
174
141
Rush Attempts
41
20
Yards / Rush
4.2
7.0
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
56%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.52
--
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-18
-14
Sack EPA
-9.46
-5.38
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
23
65
Penalty EPA
-3.57
-7.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+5.5
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+42
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.9
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-12.3
Final Difference
88.5
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
19
Yards / Game
25
11
Passing Yards / Game
24
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
23
EPA
EPA / Play
9
19
EPA / Pass
12
20
EPA / Rush
4
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
10
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
32
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
28
4th Down Efficiency
21
27
RZ Efficiency
9
13
Dolphins Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
2
Yards / Game
14
8
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
12
28
EPA
EPA / Play
13
12
EPA / Pass
16
8
EPA / Rush
15
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
7
Interceptions / Game
8
30
Fumbles / Game
15
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
5
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
21
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U