KCChiefs
11-1
33
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
8 mph
27
MIADolphins
8-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
14
8
3
25
Dolphins
7
3
0
17
27
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
448
367
Total Plays
61
77
Yards / Play
7.3
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.07
Passing Yards
354
287
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
28/49(57%)
Yards / Pass
10.4
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.04
Rushing Yards
94
80
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
27
Passing 1st downs
15
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
45%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-20.57
-1.47
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-39
-29
Sack EPA
-4.96
-6.32
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
56
35
Penalty EPA
-5.86
-4.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-188
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,662
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-79.2
Home QB Adjustment
-48.5
Away QB Adjustment
+30.7
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+30.7
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-48.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
4
Yards / Game
1
19
Passing Yards / Game
8
28
Rushing Yards / Game
16
16
EPA
EPA / Play
2
5
EPA / Pass
2
3
EPA / Rush
9
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
5
1
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
29
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
1
4th Down Efficiency
11
9
RZ Efficiency
19
7
Dolphins Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
10
Yards / Game
23
15
Passing Yards / Game
17
17
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19
EPA
EPA / Play
17
23
EPA / Pass
17
12
EPA / Rush
25
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
27
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
12
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
29
RZ Efficiency
16
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U