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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ dolphins week 14, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
11-1
33
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
8 mph
27
MIADolphins
8-4
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
14
8
3
25
Dolphins
7
3
0
17
27

Spread

MIA logo
+7

Total

OVER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
448
367
Total Plays
61
77
Yards / Play
7.3
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.07
Passing Yards
354
287
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
28/49(57%)
Yards / Pass
10.4
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.04
Rushing Yards
94
80
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
22
27
Passing 1st downs
15
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
45%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-20.57
-1.47
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-39
-29
Sack EPA
-4.96
-6.32
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
56
35
Penalty EPA
-5.86
-4.85

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-191
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,662
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-79.2
Home QB Adjustment
-48.5
Away QB Adjustment
+30.7
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+30.7
Value
Ptile
09/28
17.5
100
10/05
4.4
75
10/11
0.2
47
10/19
5.3
79
10/25
-3.6
21
11/01
13.8
99
11/08
8.6
94
11/22
6.6
87
11/29
13.3
99
12/06
4.5
76
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-48.5
Value
Ptile
11/01
-4.0
19
11/08
1.8
57
11/15
-0.8
39
11/22
-6.8
8
12/06
2.8
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Chiefs logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
6
4
Yards / Game
1
19
Passing Yards / Game
8
28
Rushing Yards / Game
16
16

EPA

EPA / Play
2
5
EPA / Pass
2
3
EPA / Rush
9
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
5
1
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
29
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
1
4th Down Efficiency
11
9
RZ Efficiency
19
7
Dolphins Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Dolphins logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
15
10
Yards / Game
23
15
Passing Yards / Game
17
17
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19

EPA

EPA / Play
17
23
EPA / Pass
17
12
EPA / Rush
25
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
27
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
12
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
29
RZ Efficiency
16
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
14
W
W
U
10/05
16
W
W
U
10/11
-8
L
L
O
10/19
9
W
W
U
10/25
27
W
W
O
11/01
26
W
W
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/22
4
W
L
O
11/29
3
W
L
U
12/06
6
W
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
18
W
W
U
10/04
-8
L
L
U
10/11
26
W
W
O
10/18
24
W
W
U
11/01
11
W
W
U
11/08
3
W
W
O
11/15
8
W
W
O
11/22
-7
L
L
U
11/29
17
W
W
U
12/06
12
W
W
U