KCChiefs
2-0
26
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
4 mph
16
PHIEagles
1-1
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
4
6
0
10
20
Eagles
6
0
3
7
16
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
394
431
Total Plays
78
64
Yards / Play
5.1
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.24
Passing Yards
248
167
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
13/30(43%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.61
Rushing Yards
146
264
Rush Attempts
38
28
Yards / Rush
3.8
9.4
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
32%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
10
Red Zone %
17%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
+5.70
-21.22
Sacks
5
6
Sack Yards
-25
-34
Sack EPA
-4.76
-10.10
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
65
45
Penalty EPA
-11.25
-4.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+102
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,414
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+20.1
Away QB Adjustment
+24.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
12
30
Passing Yards / Game
23
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
13
EPA
EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
17
20
EPA / Rush
7
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
1
6
Fumbles / Game
28
3
Turnover EPA / Game
32
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
24
4th Down Efficiency
27
11
RZ Efficiency
6
12
Eagles Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
2
25
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
1
22
EPA
EPA / Play
4
5
EPA / Pass
5
9
EPA / Rush
2
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
19
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
12
3
Turnover EPA / Game
23
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
8
4th Down Efficiency
11
20
RZ Efficiency
13
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Eagles
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U