nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ eagles week 3, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

KC logo
KCChiefs
2-0
26
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
4 mph
16
PHIEagles
1-1
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
73°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
4
6
0
10
20
Eagles
6
0
3
7
16

Spread

KC logo
+3

Total

UNDER
50

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
394
431
Total Plays
78
64
Yards / Play
5.1
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.24
Passing Yards
248
167
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
13/30(43%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.61
Rushing Yards
146
264
Rush Attempts
38
28
Yards / Rush
3.8
9.4
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
32%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
10
Red Zone %
17%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
+5.70
-21.22
Sacks
5
6
Sack Yards
-25
-34
Sack EPA
-4.76
-10.10
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
65
45
Penalty EPA
-11.25
-4.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+101
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,416
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+20.1
Away QB Adjustment
+24.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
Value
Ptile
09/16
0.5
53
09/23
-1.5
39
09/30
-2.9
31
10/07
11.7
98
10/14
-9.6
3
10/18
-3.0
30
10/29
5.9
87
11/11
-3.4
28
09/08
2.3
66
09/15
1.5
61
M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
Value
Ptile
09/23
-6.3
12
09/30
3.9
74
10/07
1.0
56
10/14
1.7
61
10/28
0.4
52
11/05
-5.8
13
11/11
-1.9
37
12/30
-2.4
34
09/09
4.6
82
09/15
11.1
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Eagles Defense
Chiefs logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
12
30
Passing Yards / Game
23
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
13

EPA

EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
17
20
EPA / Rush
7
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
1
6
Fumbles / Game
28
3
Turnover EPA / Game
32
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
24
4th Down Efficiency
27
11
RZ Efficiency
6
12
Eagles Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Eagles logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
2
25
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
1
22

EPA

EPA / Play
4
5
EPA / Pass
5
9
EPA / Rush
2
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
19
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
12
3
Turnover EPA / Game
23
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
8
4th Down Efficiency
11
20
RZ Efficiency
13
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
-3
L
W
U
11/18
-22
L
L
U
11/25
-8
L
W
U
12/02
6
W
W
O
12/09
-23
L
L
U
12/16
-15
L
L
U
12/23
-7
L
L
U
12/30
-35
L
L
P
09/08
26
W
W
U
09/15
1
W
L
U
PHI logo

Eagles

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
-15
L
L
O
11/18
-25
L
L
U
11/26
-8
L
L
O
12/02
-5
L
W
O
12/09
2
W
W
U
12/13
-21
L
L
O
12/23
-7
L
L
O
12/30
-35
L
L
O
09/09
6
W
W
O
09/15
-3
L
L
O