KCChiefs
-
28
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
85°F
10 mph
2
JAXJaguars
-
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
85°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
14
7
0
1
22
Jaguars
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
178
Total Plays
62
70
Yards / Play
4.7
2.5
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.48
Passing Yards
171
107
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
19/41(46%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
2.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.70
Rushing Yards
121
71
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
12
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
26%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
19
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.67
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-2
-50
Sack EPA
-1.96
-8.96
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
20
--
Penalty EPA
-2.99
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model55.4%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+3.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+6
Home nfelo
1,328
Away nfelo
1,367
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-29.0
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+20.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-37.9
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.9
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
28
Yards / Game
12
26
Passing Yards / Game
23
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
29
EPA
EPA / Play
9
27
EPA / Pass
17
31
EPA / Rush
7
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
2
Interceptions / Game
1
27
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
32
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
26
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
6
23
Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
31
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
6
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22
EPA
EPA / Play
31
5
EPA / Pass
32
9
EPA / Rush
30
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
19
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
4
3
Turnover EPA / Game
10
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
8
4th Down Efficiency
20
20
RZ Efficiency
32
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Jaguars
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U