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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ jaguars week 1, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
-
28
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
85°F
10 mph
2
JAXJaguars
-
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
85°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
14
7
0
1
22
Jaguars
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

KC logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
292
178
Total Plays
62
70
Yards / Play
4.7
2.5
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.48
Passing Yards
171
107
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
19/41(46%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
2.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.70
Rushing Yards
121
71
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.00
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
17
12
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
26%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
19
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.67
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-2
-50
Sack EPA
-1.96
-8.96
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
20
--
Penalty EPA
-2.99
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model55.4%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,331
Away nfelo
1,369
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-29.0
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+20.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-37.4
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.9
Value
Ptile
01/22
0.1
53
09/09
0.9
56
09/16
0.5
53
09/23
-1.5
39
09/30
-2.9
31
10/07
11.7
98
10/14
-9.6
3
10/18
-3.0
30
10/29
5.9
87
11/11
-3.4
28
B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Value
Ptile
09/09
1.2
58
09/16
-6.3
12
09/23
-2.1
35
09/30
-5.1
17
10/07
-8.9
4
10/21
-2.0
36
10/28
0.8
55
11/04
-0.2
48
11/08
-5.3
16
11/18
-4.1
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Chiefs logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
3
28
Yards / Game
12
26
Passing Yards / Game
23
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
29

EPA

EPA / Play
9
27
EPA / Pass
17
31
EPA / Rush
7
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
2
Interceptions / Game
1
27
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
32
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
26
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
6
23
Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Jaguars logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
31
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
6
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22

EPA

EPA / Play
31
5
EPA / Pass
32
9
EPA / Rush
30
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
19
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
4
3
Turnover EPA / Game
10
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
8
4th Down Efficiency
20
20
RZ Efficiency
32
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
-10
L
L
O
11/01
-18
L
L
O
11/12
-3
L
W
U
11/18
-22
L
L
U
11/25
-8
L
W
U
12/02
6
W
W
O
12/09
-23
L
L
U
12/16
-15
L
L
U
12/23
-7
L
L
U
12/30
-35
L
L
P
JAX logo

Jaguars

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
-9
L
W
U
11/04
-17
L
L
O
11/08
-17
L
L
U
11/18
-6
L
W
O
11/25
5
W
W
U
12/02
-16
L
L
O
12/09
-7
L
L
U
12/16
-21
L
L
U
12/23
-7
L
W
U
12/30
-18
L
L
O