nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ jaguars week 2, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

KC logo
KCChiefs
0-1
17
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0
9
JAXJaguars
1-0
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
7
7
3
17
Jaguars
0
6
0
3
9

Spread

KC logo
-3

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
399
271
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
6.2
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.15
Passing Yards
298
197
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
23/42(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.33
Rushing Yards
101
74
Rush Attempts
22
18
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
31%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.64
-0.65
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-18
Sack EPA
-1.26
-7.16
Penalties
12
2
Penalty Yards
94
--
Penalty EPA
-14.48
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-25
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+51.1
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.8
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.5
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
12/04
2.2
70
12/11
1.8
66
12/18
13.7
100
12/24
3.8
80
01/01
8.1
93
01/07
-0.2
51
01/21
3.3
77
01/29
4.7
84
02/12
10.3
97
09/07
1.2
57
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.5
Value
Ptile
11/27
5.5
87
12/04
-3.5
25
12/11
11.5
98
12/18
9.5
95
12/22
4.9
85
01/01
-2.7
30
01/07
-1.8
40
01/14
-0.8
47
01/21
-2.1
36
09/10
1.7
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Chiefs logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
11
20
Rushing Yards / Game
17
9

EPA

EPA / Play
10
14
EPA / Pass
13
11
EPA / Rush
16
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
18
Interceptions / Game
21
12
Fumbles / Game
21
13
Turnover EPA / Game
12
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
20
16
Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Jaguars logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
15
2
Yards / Game
12
5
Passing Yards / Game
22
11
Rushing Yards / Game
23
17

EPA

EPA / Play
15
7
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
28
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
31
Interceptions / Game
19
27
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
5
4th Down Efficiency
27
19
RZ Efficiency
21
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-3
L
L
U
12/11
6
W
L
O
12/18
6
W
L
O
12/24
14
W
W
U
01/01
3
W
L
O
01/07
18
W
W
U
01/21
7
W
L
U
01/29
3
W
W
U
02/12
3
W
W
O
09/07
-1
L
L
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
1
W
W
O
12/04
-26
L
L
O
12/11
14
W
W
O
12/18
6
W
W
O
12/22
16
W
W
U
01/01
28
W
W
U
01/07
4
W
L
U
01/14
1
W
W
O
01/21
-7
L
W
U
09/10
10
W
W
O