KCChiefs
0-1
17
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
09
JAXJaguars
1-0
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
7
7
3
17
Jaguars
0
6
0
3
9
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
399
271
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
6.2
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.15
Passing Yards
298
197
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
23/42(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.33
Rushing Yards
101
74
Rush Attempts
22
18
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
31%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.64
-0.65
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-18
Sack EPA
-1.26
-7.16
Penalties
12
2
Penalty Yards
94
--
Penalty EPA
-14.48
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+50.7
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
11
20
Rushing Yards / Game
17
9
EPA
EPA / Play
10
14
EPA / Pass
13
11
EPA / Rush
16
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
18
Interceptions / Game
21
12
Fumbles / Game
21
13
Turnover EPA / Game
12
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
20
16
Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
2
Yards / Game
12
5
Passing Yards / Game
22
11
Rushing Yards / Game
23
17
EPA
EPA / Play
15
7
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
28
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
31
Interceptions / Game
19
27
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
5
4th Down Efficiency
27
19
RZ Efficiency
21
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U