KCChiefs
2-2
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0JAXJaguars
3-1
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-72
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+31.7
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-16.7
Home QB Adjustment
-5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+11.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
16
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4
EPA
EPA / Play
8
4
EPA / Pass
10
4
EPA / Rush
4
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
2
1
Fumbles / Game
1
3
Turnover EPA / Game
30
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
3
6
RZ Efficiency
18
5
Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
8
Yards / Game
10
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
22
EPA
EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
21
8
EPA / Rush
7
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
21
Interceptions / Game
24
8
Fumbles / Game
1
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
9
4th Down Efficiency
14
6
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U