KCChiefs
2-2
28
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
12 mph
31
JAXJaguars
3-1
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
7
0
14
28
Jaguars
0
7
8
10
25
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
476
319
Total Plays
63
54
Yards / Play
7.6
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.22
Passing Yards
--
210
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
18/25(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.03
Rushing Yards
158
109
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
7.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.42
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
21
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
56%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
9
Red Zone %
80%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-12.66
-8.72
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-1.60
Penalties
13
4
Penalty Yards
109
--
Penalty EPA
-12.12
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-72
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+32.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-16.7
Home QB Adjustment
-5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+11.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
12
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
16
2
EPA
EPA / Play
3
12
EPA / Pass
6
11
EPA / Rush
3
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
10
2
Fumbles / Game
1
11
Turnover EPA / Game
26
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
28
4th Down Efficiency
3
6
RZ Efficiency
7
27
Jaguars Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
4
Yards / Game
20
7
Passing Yards / Game
26
25
Rushing Yards / Game
8
9
EPA
EPA / Play
17
17
EPA / Pass
24
12
EPA / Rush
4
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
20
Interceptions / Game
23
17
Fumbles / Game
3
24
Turnover EPA / Game
20
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
12
1
RZ Efficiency
19
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U