nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ jets week 4, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

KC logo
KCChiefs
2-1
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
69°F
5 mph
20
NYJJets
1-2
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
69°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
17
3
0
3
23
Jets
0
10
8
0
18

Spread

NYJ logo
+8

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
401
338
Total Plays
66
58
Yards / Play
6.1
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.05
Passing Yards
197
228
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.09
Rushing Yards
204
110
Rush Attempts
35
17
Yards / Rush
5.8
6.5
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
58%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.39
-5.00
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-17
Sack EPA
-1.66
-2.02
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
46
42
Penalty EPA
-4.52
-3.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market76.2%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-175
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+50.6
Base HFA
+43.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
-7.8
Net QB Adjustment
-90.6
Home QB Adjustment
-82.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.6
Market Regression
-27.6
Final Difference
-202.2
Model Spread
+8.0

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
Value
Ptile
12/18
13.7
100
12/24
3.8
80
01/01
8.1
93
01/07
-0.2
51
01/21
3.3
77
01/29
4.7
84
02/12
10.3
97
09/07
1.2
57
09/17
4.8
80
09/24
8.3
95
Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-82.0
Value
Ptile
10/09
-1.3
43
10/16
-6.0
13
10/23
-3.8
24
10/30
-3.0
28
11/06
1.5
63
11/20
-7.3
8
12/18
-5.0
18
12/22
-11.5
1
09/17
-7.8
9
09/24
-5.5
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Jets Defense
Chiefs logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
14
10
Yards / Game
8
2
Passing Yards / Game
11
4
Rushing Yards / Game
17
25

EPA

EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
13
3
EPA / Rush
16
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
4
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
21
13
Turnover EPA / Game
12
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
12
4th Down Efficiency
12
5
RZ Efficiency
20
7
Jets Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Jets logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
29
2
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
30
11
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17

EPA

EPA / Play
31
7
EPA / Pass
32
4
EPA / Rush
32
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
32
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
19
RZ Efficiency
32
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
6
W
L
O
12/24
14
W
W
U
01/01
3
W
L
O
01/07
18
W
W
U
01/21
7
W
L
U
01/29
3
W
W
U
02/12
3
W
W
O
09/07
-1
L
L
U
09/17
8
W
W
U
09/24
31
W
W
O
NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
21
W
W
O
12/04
-5
L
L
O
12/11
-8
L
W
U
12/18
-3
L
L
U
12/22
-16
L
L
U
01/01
-17
L
L
U
01/08
-5
L
L
U
09/11
6
W
W
U
09/17
-20
L
L
O
09/24
-5
L
L
U