KCChiefs
2-1
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
69°F
5 mph
20
NYJJets
1-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
69°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
17
3
0
3
23
Jets
0
10
8
0
18
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
401
338
Total Plays
66
58
Yards / Play
6.1
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.05
Passing Yards
197
228
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.09
Rushing Yards
204
110
Rush Attempts
35
17
Yards / Rush
5.8
6.5
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
58%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.39
-5.00
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-17
Sack EPA
-1.66
-2.02
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
46
42
Penalty EPA
-4.52
-3.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market76.2%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-174
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+50.2
Base HFA
+42.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-90.2
Home QB Adjustment
-81.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.5
Market Regression
-27.6
Final Difference
-202.2
Model Spread
+8.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+8.5
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-81.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
10
Yards / Game
8
2
Passing Yards / Game
11
4
Rushing Yards / Game
17
25
EPA
EPA / Play
10
4
EPA / Pass
13
3
EPA / Rush
16
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
4
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
21
13
Turnover EPA / Game
12
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
12
4th Down Efficiency
12
5
RZ Efficiency
20
7
Jets Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
2
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
30
11
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17
EPA
EPA / Play
31
7
EPA / Pass
32
4
EPA / Rush
32
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
32
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
19
RZ Efficiency
32
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U