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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ jets week 13, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
6-5
31
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
0
38
NYJJets
4-7
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
14
3
7
7
31
Jets
14
7
6
11
38

Spread

NYJ logo
+4

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
474
490
Total Plays
46
86
Yards / Play
10.3
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.38
+0.26
Passing Yards
362
--
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
26/36(72%)
Yards / Pass
11.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.52
+0.52
Rushing Yards
112
159
Rush Attempts
11
50
Yards / Rush
10.2
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.41
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
17
30
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
38%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
3
13
3rd Down Attempts
8
20
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-1.70
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
29
40
Penalty EPA
-9.57
-2.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-85
Home nfelo
1,392
Away nfelo
1,564
Home Field
+86.2
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+9.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
+10.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
Value
Ptile
09/17
1.1
60
09/24
-2.2
37
10/02
7.1
91
10/08
10.4
98
10/15
-0.4
49
10/19
7.4
92
10/30
0.4
55
11/05
2.7
71
11/19
-3.0
32
11/26
-0.8
46
J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Value
Ptile
09/17
-0.6
48
09/24
1.2
61
10/01
-4.5
22
10/08
-2.4
36
10/15
-0.0
52
10/22
0.6
56
10/29
3.2
75
11/02
1.6
64
11/12
-7.2
12
11/26
4.5
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Jets Defense
Chiefs logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
7
22
Yards / Game
6
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
5
Rushing Yards / Game
10
24

EPA

EPA / Play
3
22
EPA / Pass
5
22
EPA / Rush
5
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
3
18
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
10
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
29
21
Jets Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Jets logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
23
15
Yards / Game
28
29
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28

EPA

EPA / Play
23
24
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
23
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
17
Interceptions / Game
13
9
Fumbles / Game
23
21
Turnover EPA / Game
20
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
10
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
7
W
W
O
09/24
14
W
W
U
10/02
9
W
W
O
10/08
8
W
W
O
10/15
-6
L
L
U
10/19
-1
L
L
O
10/30
10
W
W
O
11/05
-11
L
L
U
11/19
-3
L
L
U
11/26
-6
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
-25
L
L
O
09/24
14
W
W
U
10/01
3
W
W
O
10/08
3
W
W
U
10/15
-7
L
W
U
10/22
-3
L
P
O
10/29
-5
L
W
O
11/02
13
W
W
O
11/12
-5
L
L
U
11/26
-8
L
L
O