KCChiefs
6-5
31
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
038
NYJJets
4-7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
14
3
7
7
31
Jets
14
7
6
11
38
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
474
490
Total Plays
46
86
Yards / Play
10.3
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.38
+0.26
Passing Yards
362
--
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
26/36(72%)
Yards / Pass
11.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.52
+0.52
Rushing Yards
112
159
Rush Attempts
11
50
Yards / Rush
10.2
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.41
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
30
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
38%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
3
13
3rd Down Attempts
8
20
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-1.70
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
29
40
Penalty EPA
-9.57
-2.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-87
Home nfelo
1,393
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+86.2
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+9.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
+10.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
22
Yards / Game
6
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
5
Rushing Yards / Game
10
24
EPA
EPA / Play
3
22
EPA / Pass
5
22
EPA / Rush
5
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
3
18
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
10
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
29
21
Jets Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
15
Yards / Game
28
29
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
19
28
EPA
EPA / Play
23
24
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
23
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
17
Interceptions / Game
13
9
Fumbles / Game
23
21
Turnover EPA / Game
20
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
10
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U