KCChiefs
3-0
34
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
030
DETLions
2-0
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
13
1
14
28
Lions
10
3
10
7
30
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
438
447
Total Plays
67
73
Yards / Play
6.5
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
261
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.14
Rushing Yards
123
186
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
29
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
5
4
3rd Down %
44%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
2
Turnover EPA
-15.05
-18.82
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-30
Sack EPA
--
-11.89
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
51
48
Penalty EPA
-5.15
-6.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model67.6%
Spread Pick
Lions+7.0
Expected Value
+8.6%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-85
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+66.0
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
-27.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.4
Away QB Adjustment
+31.7
Market Regression
-3.8
Final Difference
-127.5
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+31.7
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
26
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
5
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
21
EPA
EPA / Play
2
23
EPA / Pass
2
26
EPA / Rush
7
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
13
Interceptions / Game
3
30
Fumbles / Game
14
7
Turnover EPA / Game
29
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
28
4th Down Efficiency
3
14
RZ Efficiency
11
18
Lions Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
10
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
15
Rushing Yards / Game
21
25
EPA
EPA / Play
21
16
EPA / Pass
16
9
EPA / Rush
27
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
28
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
10
24
Turnover EPA / Game
14
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
10
4th Down Efficiency
24
17
RZ Efficiency
12
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Lions
5-4-1
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U