KCChiefs
4-5
3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
2 mph
34
NEPatriots
6-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
33°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
0
0
0
3
Patriots
0
10
11
7
28
Spread
-17
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
334
380
Total Plays
67
65
Yards / Play
5.0
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.13
Passing Yards
209
223
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.14
Rushing Yards
125
157
Rush Attempts
27
35
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
43%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-15.56
-3.54
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-21
-11
Sack EPA
-4.84
-5.80
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
34
--
Penalty EPA
-4.80
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-17.0
Model
-17.0
Win Probability
Market90.9%
Model90.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+403
Home nfelo
1,695
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+90.1
Home QB Adjustment
+17.0
Away QB Adjustment
-73.1
Market Regression
+32.8
Final Difference
399.8
Model Spread
-17.0
Quarterbacks
T. Palko
Proj. Value
-5.3
Team Elo Adj
-73.1
No recent game data available
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
11
Yards / Game
27
31
Passing Yards / Game
28
28
Rushing Yards / Game
15
19
EPA
EPA / Play
29
27
EPA / Pass
21
27
EPA / Rush
31
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
26
Interceptions / Game
23
4
Fumbles / Game
6
25
Turnover EPA / Game
14
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
28
4th Down Efficiency
15
17
RZ Efficiency
32
18
Patriots Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
13
Yards / Game
2
11
Passing Yards / Game
2
2
Rushing Yards / Game
19
26
EPA
EPA / Play
1
21
EPA / Pass
3
22
EPA / Rush
4
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
20
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
30
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
2
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U