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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ patriots week 14, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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KC logo
KCChiefs
8-4
23
TBD
Gillette Stadium
32°F
8 mph
16
NEPatriots
10-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
32°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
17
3
0
23
Patriots
7
0
6
3
16

Spread

KC logo
+3

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
346
278
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
4.9
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.24
Passing Yards
271
184
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.47
Rushing Yards
75
94
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
31%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.55
-4.76
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-12
-20
Sack EPA
-2.35
-4.83
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
136
25
Penalty EPA
-13.62
-3.13

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+102
Home nfelo
1,696
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+56.4
Base HFA
+48.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.8
Time Adj
-8.6
Net QB Adjustment
-29.4
Home QB Adjustment
-16.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Value
Ptile
09/08
10.6
98
09/15
10.0
97
09/22
10.0
96
09/29
4.6
82
10/06
-1.2
45
10/13
0.0
52
10/17
-0.3
50
11/10
11.0
99
11/18
0.9
59
12/01
-0.5
48
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.9
Value
Ptile
09/22
3.7
77
09/29
-6.4
14
10/06
5.7
85
10/10
3.6
75
10/21
0.6
56
10/27
-1.1
46
11/03
0.1
52
11/17
-3.5
28
11/24
-5.4
17
12/01
-1.4
44

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Patriots Defense
Chiefs logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
2
1
Yards / Game
4
1
Passing Yards / Game
5
4
Rushing Yards / Game
22
8

EPA

EPA / Play
2
1
EPA / Pass
2
1
EPA / Rush
7
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
29
Interceptions / Game
3
1
Fumbles / Game
14
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
6
RZ Efficiency
11
8
Patriots Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Patriots logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
7
10
Yards / Game
14
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
15
Rushing Yards / Game
18
25

EPA

EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
18
9
EPA / Rush
15
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
28
Interceptions / Game
10
4
Fumbles / Game
15
24
Turnover EPA / Game
28
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
10
4th Down Efficiency
26
17
RZ Efficiency
26
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
5
W
W
O
09/29
4
W
L
O
10/06
-6
L
L
U
10/13
-7
L
L
O
10/17
24
W
W
U
10/27
-7
L
L
O
11/03
3
W
W
O
11/10
-3
L
L
O
11/18
7
W
W
U
12/01
31
W
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
16
W
L
O
09/29
6
W
L
U
10/06
26
W
W
U
10/10
21
W
W
O
10/21
33
W
W
U
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/03
-17
L
L
O
11/17
7
W
W
U
11/24
4
W
L
U
12/01
-6
L
L
O