KCChiefs
8-4
23
TBD
Gillette Stadium
32°F
8 mph
16
NEPatriots
10-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
32°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
17
3
0
23
Patriots
7
0
6
3
16
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
346
278
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
4.9
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.24
Passing Yards
271
184
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.47
Rushing Yards
75
94
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
31%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.55
-4.76
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-12
-20
Sack EPA
-2.35
-4.83
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
136
25
Penalty EPA
-13.62
-3.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,699
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+56.4
Base HFA
+48.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.8
Time Adj
-8.6
Net QB Adjustment
-29.4
Home QB Adjustment
-16.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
1
Yards / Game
4
1
Passing Yards / Game
5
4
Rushing Yards / Game
22
8
EPA
EPA / Play
2
1
EPA / Pass
2
1
EPA / Rush
7
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
29
Interceptions / Game
3
1
Fumbles / Game
14
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
6
RZ Efficiency
11
8
Patriots Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
10
Yards / Game
14
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
15
Rushing Yards / Game
18
25
EPA
EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
18
9
EPA / Rush
15
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
28
Interceptions / Game
10
4
Fumbles / Game
15
24
Turnover EPA / Game
28
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
10
4th Down Efficiency
26
17
RZ Efficiency
26
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U